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I still can’t fathom what is going on in this country. The Government has made a first-rate Horlicks of the COVID-19 situation and as a distraction, switched back to providing leaks and updates about Brexit. The EU and the UK have about 5 weeks to reach an agreement on the trading terms and conditions otherwise it will be a no-deal Brexit, with the result being bad news for both parties. The EU governing body is getting fed up with its chief negotiator for being too intransigent and Germany, in particular, is getting twitchy about the probable damage to its motor industry.
Mutter Merkel is putting the heavy word on the EU, but she also has her own issues. The poisoning of the Russian opposition leader has resulted in widespread condemnation from Europe (including the UK), but Germany is dependent on gas from the Russian Federation. There is a new pipeline being built from Russia to Germany (the Nord Stream 2) running from near St Petersburg to Greifswald in Germany. Frau Merkel has threatened to put that on hold. She is now fighting a war on two fronts (sound familiar?). Sorry, a cheap shot, but I couldn’t resist it.
The pipeline is not an energy security issue for Germany, so she can use the threat of not using it as leverage with the Russian Federation as well as its European partners. This puts her in an even stronger position with the EU regarding Brexit.
Boris Johnson has problems: in wartime, the people could see the situation first-hand and the destruction was visible. With the late-stage COVID-19 crisis a lot must be taken on trust, and therein lies the problem. Because of earlier confusion and ineptitude in presentation and implementation the government has just about run out of political capital. He has introduced new lockdown requirements, both regional and national, and there is doubt whether they will be adhered to.
In order to ensure compliance, they have increased the fine structure, with each subsequent prosecuted breach of the regulations increasing the fine. The number of reported cases of COVID-19 is increasing, but the number of deaths is not increasing as much. This has been put down to breaches of social distancing amongst the young causing an increase of cases in this demographic, which has a higher survival rate. It could also be down to the increase in testing so that more minor infections are discovered.
The government has not explained this adequately, but just introduced a new regime of lockdown. With the loss of political capital and trust, strict adherence is unlikely. The general feeling is one of just being fed up with the whole thing.
Just to compound the issues regarding the credibility of the Government, the Northern Ireland Secretary confirmed to the House of Commons that a new bill to be introduced to “streamline” the Brexit negotiations would actually result in the UK being in breach of the part of the withdrawal agreement that was an international treaty. This is an illegal act under international law.
That sound you can hear in the background is the swirl of the UK’s credibility going down the toilet. This action has Dominic Cummings’s fingerprints all over it.
This has increased the stirrings within the Conservative party, and Boris Johnson has been on a damage limitation exercise, attending the 1922 committee and meeting with new MPs and backbenchers. The general feeling is that he has 4 years before the next election safe with a huge majority, but the ‘thinking’ person’s money is on him having to fight hard to remain as Prime Minister in 6 months time.
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