How pathetically wet does a Liberal leader have to be for even the ‘moderates’ to desert her? If those woke, soggy lettuce-leaves are rallying behind an actual conservative, it might be a sign that the party is finally coming to its collective senses. Or, more likely, the ‘moderates’ are chucking a tanty.
A growing number of moderate Liberal MPs are pulling their support for Sussan Ley and are backing Andrew Hastie to be the next leader, arguing she has caved to his agenda and he has a better chance of lifting the coalition’s stocks electorally.
The Australian has spoken to senior conservative and moderate MPs who believe there is a growing momentum behind Mr Hastie’s push to become leader, amid fury in moderate ranks that Ms Ley had delivered a climate policy “worse than the Nationals”.
At least the Nationals clearly believe in their policy. Ley has ‘compromised’ an unholy chimaera that’s nothing more than Net Zero with extra steps, which is standard ‘moderate’ operating procedure: copy the Greens’ homework, but just change a word here and there and hope nobody notices.
And when they do, just chuck a hissy-fit because, for once, the party took a step back from the abyss of wokeism.
A moderate MP conceded the faction had little in common with Mr Hastie’s populist agenda, but argued “if he thinks he has got all the bright ideas then let him do it”.
The MP said it was pointless having Ms Ley in the role if she was just delivering the conservatives their policies, arguing she would not be able to sell the energy program to voters.
So, there we have it: the ‘moderate’ wing of a supposedly conservative party hate delivering conservative policies.
Meanwhile, the conservatives seem to sense that the ‘moderates’ are ripe for a fall.
Conservative powerbrokers told the Australian Ms Ley’s leadership was “terminal” but there would be no challenge this year, while some moderates want Mr Hastie to push for a spill before Christmas.
Of course they do: they don’t think he quite has the numbers yet, so they want to deal with him before he gets too popular.
Conservative MPs say the moderates should be prepared to call for a spill if they want a leadership change, arguing it is unfair to put the baggage on the right faction. One conservative MP said the moderates did not support Mr Hastie’s policies, but increasingly viewed him as a better electoral option, arguing the shift from the grouping was “entirely opportunistic”.
“They may well see if they back him, they end up more senior in the moderate ranks,” the conservative MP said. “They want to be on the bandwagon.”
That is the great danger a putative Hastie leadership would face: the same danger that untimely ended Tony Abbott’s centre-right conservative leadership: the shifty, backstabbing ‘moderates’. It was King Moderate himself, Malcolm Turnbull, who knifed Abbott’s leadership. Ever since, the coalition’s vote has trended steadily downward. If Hastie, like Abbott, does the hard yards and returns the coalition to government, you can bet the ‘moderates’ will do their best to bring him down so they can seize the party’s reins again.
Frankly, the ‘moderates’ – especially the fatuous Tim Wilson and Dave Sharma – should just drop the pretence and defect to the Teals. The coalition can more than make up their loss by appealing to the struggling mortgage-belt suburbs, where energy prices and housing, both the outcome of policies backed by the ‘moderates’, are the overriding issues.
A leadership challenge seems unlikely until early next year. In the meantime, the conservative majority in the coalition are faced with the choice of whom to back against Ley. The party’s right are keen to avoid a split between conservatives, if it comes to backing Hastie against the other likely challenger, Angus Taylor. Taylor has more experience, but is tainted by the woefully bollixed 2025 election campaign. Hastie has far more voter appeal and intellectual credibility, but is relatively inexperienced.
But then, that never stopped Kevin Rudd or Jacinda Ardern.
