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Summarised by Centrist
Speculation about Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership flared again after a poor poll result, but political scientist Grant Duncan argues the moment may be “another false alarm” rather than the start of a leadership collapse.
The immediate trigger for the speculation was a Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll placing National at 28.4 per cent, about six points behind Labour. Duncan acknowledges that the result was concerning for the governing party, writing that “a poll result below 30 for National is indicative of a continuing downward trend from 38 at the last election.”
Duncan asks whether “Friday’s alarm [was] another false alarm?”
He cautions against treating a single poll as decisive political evidence, describing the intense media reaction as driven by “easy click-bait.”
National won the 2023 election with 38 per cent of the vote, but Luxon has struggled to build personal popularity. “This has never been a truly popular government, and Luxon has never been a popular leader,” he notes.
According to Duncan, “people are forgetting how incompetent the Labour team have proven themselves to be, but National is disappointing them too.”
Despite the poll slump, Duncan says a leadership challenge is unlikely to be a quick solution. He notes that “voters don’t reward party in-fighting,” and potential successors may see little benefit in taking over during a difficult period for the government.
The larger issue for National, he writes, is that “New Zealanders haven’t grown to like Luxon after all.”
