I recently came across a video featuring Michael Laws on the Platform talking about the last two polls of 2024. They were the TVNZ Verian poll and the Taxpayers Union Curia poll. He talks about the results they threw up and what they reveal about the future of the country. His analysis, while not entirely surprising, is spot on. He also emphasises that politicians pay a lot of attention to them.
His focus was largely on the left/right groupings and the media. He found the two polls were somewhat similar in their findings and shows that the collective vote for the centre right is largely unchanged from the election. Also National’s vote has similarly held up. With an apology to Christopher Luxon, he wonders why that is. He pointed out that in his view National had done nothing of note in the month prior to the polls.
No doubt many reading this would agree. Michael says that on the major issue confronting the country (I presume he was referring to the Treaty Principles Bill), National has pretty much sat on the sidelines and let Seymour, Peters and Jones have the publicity. It was in this context that he posed the question in relation to National’s fairly high polling numbers. His answer, one which most of us would come to, lies with the problems on the left.
In Michael’s view, and mine, the main problem for that side of the House is the Māori Party. In both polls they increased their numbers. In the TV One poll, they were at five per cent and the Curia poll had them even higher at seven per cent. This may have been as a result of the recent hīkoi and therefore is not likely to hold up.
However the salient point here is, as Michael points out, where this increased support is coming from. It is coming from the Greens and also from Labour. The coalition parties are unaffected and hence their support is largely unchanged. The person with the problem in this situation is Chris Hipkins.
Michael says Hipkin’s task over the Christmas break is to work out how to decouple Labour from the Māori Party. He is correct but, in my opinion, Hipkins is showing little interest in this course of action. Rather, he has come out in support of a lot of the racist rhetoric that has emanated from that source. But, as Michael says, the polls show the public have looked at that scenario and said ‘no, thank you’.
In Michael’s view, Labour is seen as joined at the hip to the Māori Party. Those voters who might normally look at both National and Labour prior to casting their vote will now not do so. The thought of a government involving the likes of Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngawera-Packer is not something they wish to contemplate. Therefore, Michael says, Hipkins will not be our prime minister and Labour won’t regain power.
He points out there are some on the right, like Matthew Hooton, who he says “has gone mad”, that believe the coalition is finished. According to Michael, unless things change this government will be in power for the next 15 years. He ponders how old our foreign affairs minister will be then.
As for the media, Michael says the MSM have done their very best to degrade, denigrate and disrupt the government on any number of issues. He says they have done this by the stories they have run and how they have presented them. He theorises that the newsrooms of these leftist outlets must be sitting there puzzled. They must be saying, ‘We’ve done our best, we can’t do any better and yet look at the polls. What the hell is wrong with this country.’
The MSM have failed miserably. There is nothing wrong with the country: people just don’t listen, watch or read the drivel they spew or write. They are the authors of their own demise. It appears they have not taken on board lessons they should have learned from the last election. They might think they are helping the left, but the opposite is the case. Banging on with the same narrative and expecting a different result is nuts.
In my next article I will give an example of why the Māori Party must never be allowed near the levers of power.
Michael’s video can be found on YouTube. It is well worth a watch.
