‘Neck and neck’ – Poll shows stalemate as Greens rise, NZ First slips, and cost pressures bite

Summarised by Centrist

The latest New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union–Curia Market Research poll points to a deadlock, with neither bloc able to form a government.

Labour slips to 34.1% and National to 31.3%, leaving the main parties largely unchanged. As the Taxpayers’ Union puts it, “the race is neck-and-neck.”

The real movement is among the minor parties. New Zealand First falls sharply to 10.5%, while the Greens jump to 10.3%. ACT edges down to 6.7%, and Te Pāti Māori dips to 2.9%. According to the Taxpayers’ Union, “the sizeable shift in the seat numbers mostly reflects changes in support for the Greens and New Zealand First since last month.”

Those changes reshuffle seats without shifting power. The centre-right drops three seats to 60, while the centre-left gains three to also reach 60. On these numbers, Parliament is evenly split.

Cost of living now dominates voter concern. It jumps 7.4 points to 34.9%, its highest level since May 2024. 

The economy follows well behind on 12%, with health next at 9.2%.

That rise cuts against the dominant economic narrative. Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross says the result is “significant as it is counter to much of the media commentary about the recovering economy.” He adds: “Clearly people just aren’t feeling it yet.”

Read more over at The Taxpayers’ Union NZ

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