In the lead-up to the Brexit referendum, Remainers were hysterically predicting every calamity from World War III to instant economic calamity if Britain voted to leave the EU. Suffice to say, the world failed to self-immolate in a cloud of radioactive fire and any economic calamity can be sheeted home to the Chinese virus rather than Brexit. In fact, the pound soared after 2016.
Indeed, it appears now that it was the EU itself rather than Britain which has the most to lose from Brexit – especially as Europe’s political bastardry comes back to bite it on le derrière.
No Deal will cost the EU a whopping £30 billion a year in lost trade with Britain, experts warned last night.
Ever since the Brexit vote pricked Brussels’s smug bubble, and especially since Boris Johnson declined to sign on to Theresa May’s catastrophic deal, which would have seen Britain remain in the EU in all but name and with no political rights, the EU has sought to punish the Brits. Brussels has talked a big game and threatened to wave lots of sticks, but it appears that it was all so much bullying bluster.
Germany, the Netherlands, and France will be hit the hardest if the Brexit talks fail, according to a bombshell report.
But if a trade agreement is found the impact on businesses in major European economies would be roughly halved.
Clearly, Europe needed Britain far more than vice-versa. Which shouldn’t surprise anyone, really. It’s not the first time Britain has been asked to save Europe from itself.
The findings will heap pressure on EU leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, to compromise as negotiations reach their climax.
Dutch credit insurer Euler Hermes, which is owned by the German financial services giant Allianz, put the chances of No Deal at 45 per cent.
Under that scenario Germany would suffer a £7.4 billion a year hit, affecting its famed manufacturing sector the worst.
The Netherlands, which has a booming trade in chemicals with Britain, is predicted to lose £4.3 billion.
And France, whose leader Mr Macron is taking the hardest line, faces a £3.3 billion whammy with its food and wine industry in the firing line.
But the report warned the UK would also be hit badly by No Deal, with GDP plummeting by five per cent and exports dropping 15 per cent.
Assuming, of course, that Britain doesn’t simply send its exports elsewhere, in particular the US.
Johan Geeroms, risk director at Euler Hermes, warned many European companies aren’t ready for Brexit because they’ve been distracted by the pandemic.
He predicted a last minute compromise and said negotiators should “not close your eyes to the social, political and economic consequences” of No Deal.
Perhaps, instead of petulantly trying to punish Britain for its temerity, the EU could try dealing in good faith for a change.
Which will probably happen some time after pigs learn to fly.
If you enjoyed this article please consider sharing it with your friends.
