As the Tasmanian Labor Party has found, forcing snap elections can blow up badly. Not that Labor intended to, in Tasmania, but it’s what they did when they tried a clever-dick stunt by ramming through a no-confidence motion on Premier Jeremy Rockliff. While the outcome of the hung parliament is yet to be finalised, Labor’s primary vote plunged to an historic low of just 26 per cent.
On the other hand, last November’s snap election in Japan was entirely the decision of new PM Shigeru Ishiba, following the resignation of Fumio Kishida. But the scandals that precipitated Kishida’s resignation also badly damaged the reputation of the Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for all but a handful of years since 1955. As a result, the LDP lost its majority in the lower house of the Diet and Ishiba barely hung on to his job.
The uncertainty, though, hasn’t gone away. If anything, last week’s upper house half-election, where the LDP lost 18 seats, has only deepened the crisis. The big winners were rising conservative populists, the Democratic Party for the People, and newcomers Sanseitō (“Political Participation Party”).
The drubbing for the LDP, who lost 18 seats of its 39 in the upper house, is precipitating jostling within its own ranks, as ambitious would-be successors to Ishiba begin to sound their support.
On Wednesday, former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi reportedly met with some of the lawmakers who had supported her unsuccessful bid against Ishiba for the party leadership last September. Later the same day, Takaichi met with former Prime Minister Taro Aso, who had worked to coalesce support around her candidacy during that leadership race.
“The public has shown us we can’t win an election with you as prime minister,” Aso is said to have told Ishiba in an unusual meeting attended by two other former prime ministers – Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida – on Wednesday, according to several media reports Thursday.
Regarded as a staunch conservative, Takaichi’s standing might well be damaged by the defeat of other fellow LDP conservatives, such as Masaaki Akaike and Mio Sugita in Sunday’s Upper House election.
She had already lost some of her closest supporters in last year’s Lower House election. The LDP’s conservative camp also lost a number of veterans on Sunday, such as Masahisa Sato, the former head of the party’s foreign affairs committee, and former Upper House Speaker Akiko Santo.
In addition, the bloc seems to be divided between Takaichi and another aspiring leader, former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, who was also unsuccessful in last year’s party leadership race.
On the other hand, others who are likely also vying for the post — namely farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi – are constrained in their activities by their current roles in government.
The only certainty is continued uncertainty.
With the LDP set to engage in internal discussions and assessments of the reasons behinds its electoral defeat, party Diet members will no doubt make their feelings toward the leadership known. When parliament convenes to welcome newly elected members, elect a speaker and various committee chairs, the bloodletting and horse trading will be on for young and old.
The thin margin of the electoral loss – the [LDP] coalition [with junior partner Kōmeitō] is only three seats short of the 125 needed for a majority – leaves enough wiggle room for political maneuvering.
Unlike the session of parliament that opens after the dissolution of the Lower House, the upcoming session doesn’t provide for a formal vote on the head of government. That means there’s no formal procedure to force Ishiba out in parliament.
External events, such as the 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the end of World War II, and the Bon Festival holiday, would seem to preclude another general election soon. But, with the certain to be frenzied political machinations in upcoming weeks, anything is possible.
