No Heather, Bridges CAN’T Do a ScoMo and I Think You Know It

Heather du Plessis-Allan asks whether or not Simon Bridges can do a Sco-Mo in election year:

Simon Bridges wants to be the next ScoMo.

ScoMo was the guy who pulled off a “miracle” win six  months ago. He won the “unwinnable election”. Bridges wants to be that guy next year.

But, will he be able to?

No, he won’t. ScoMo isn’t a dick, but SiBri is.

There’s no doubt Bridges is copying ScoMo’s playbook.

He’s been to Australia, met with Scott Morrison and  picked his brains. Bridges’ team haven’t been shy about it. It’s widely  known around Wellington that the Nats are already copying a lot of the  tactics Morrison’s Liberals used in order to win.

The short, clever videos for social media. The algorithms that target those videos directly at the right voters. The photos of the party leader with his kids, branding him as the average dad. The slogans  accusing the opposition of being the party the country “can’t afford”.  It’s all there in the Liberals’ playbook. And it’s all being recycled in New Zealand.

There are a few clear differences that Heather doesn’t mention.

Firstly, the creators of those videos, Topham Guerin, have fired National as clients. Secondly, so have C|T Group (Crosby|Textor), and thirdly, Steve Joyce isn’t helping Bridges, like he was helping ScoMo.

…to make this work, the Nats are going to need to do more than just copy ScoMo’s plan. They might execute it perfectly, but there’s a problem they can’t overcome. Simon Bridges vs Jacinda Ardern.

That is the fatal flaw of Bridges’ campaign.

ScoMo might’ve come home thanks to a good strategy,  but he also won because of who he was up against. Bill Shorten was about as popular as cod liver oil. Try as hard as you could, it was difficult to like the guy. ScoMo had the advantage of being the more popular of the two.

Bridges doesn’t have that advantage. He’s up against the woman who generated Jacindamania last time around. Even though her polls have plummeted in recent months, Bridges is still so far behind he’s in a different postal code.

This is precisely what the favourables polling exposes, and precisely why National party strategist Todd McClay tries valiantly to keep them secret from National caucus. This is why Bridges threw Jami-Lee Ross under the bus; he kept highlighting the vast differences in favourables between Jacinda Ardern and Simon Bridges. Honesty was thrown under the bus and sycophancy rewarded.

There’s always a chance for National that copying the Liberals might be enough. But, the party might want to put it in perspective. ScoMo had the advantage of both this strategy and his own popularity. And despite that, he only just squeaked in with a wafer-thin majority in Parliament. Bridges has the advantage of this strategy but his popularity is barely double digits. Is that enough to squeak in?

No, it isn’t enough. Unless National change their leader then the voters, as they get closer to the election will just switch off to National. On election day, they will just stay home. Long term observers are noting the similarity between a Bridges-led National party with the dreadful electoral events of 2002. Bill English lost so badly that it was difficult for Don Brash to even get close. Bridges is running that risk now. National will not be able to govern alone. If John Key couldn’t do it then Simon Bridges never will.

Bridges simply isn’t likeable. The polls show that National’s numbers are remaining high despite their dreadful leader.

SiBri will never be able to do what ScoMo achieved.