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Summarised by Centrist
A new Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll suggests New Zealand’s political balance remains extremely tight, with a Labour-led bloc narrowly ahead and capable of forming a government by the slimmest possible margin.
Labour has edged up slightly in the latest survey, gaining 0.3 points to 34.4 per cent, while National has fallen 2.9 points to 28.4 per cent. The shift pushes the projected left bloc to 61 seats in Parliament, just enough to govern, while the centre-right slips to 59 seats.
Luxon has rejected speculation about his leadership, saying he is “absolutely not” considering stepping down and that he still has “the full support of my team and my caucus.”
Under the projected set-up, Labour would hold 44 seats, up one from the previous poll. National drops three seats to 36. The Greens remain steady on 13 seats, as does New Zealand First, while ACT rises two seats to 10. Te Pāti Māori remains on four seats.
The Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross noted, the poll “confirms that the election race is as close as it can be,” with neither bloc commanding a decisive lead.
The results also show National continues to lead on economic management and government spending. Labour, however, holds the advantage across a broader range of issues, including health, poverty, inflation, education, safety, housing, and the environment.
Despite National traditionally campaigning as the low-tax party, respondents in this poll were more likely to trust Labour not to increase taxes.
Among smaller parties, ACT gained modestly to 7.5 per cent, while New Zealand First slipped slightly to 9.7 per cent. The Greens rose marginally to 10.5 per cent. Te Pāti Māori recorded 3.2 per cent.
Read more over at The Taxpayers’ Union NZ, The NZ Herald and The Spinoff
