Anyone who takes the two polls released this week seriously needs to have a rethink. To have a poll on a new PM when all he has done of note is to gaze over a drenched Auckland from a chopper is patently ridiculous. In terms of sorting out the mess his government has created he is yet to do anything. You can’t tell me you can honestly judge someone who has been in the job for less than a week. So, looked at in that light, these polls are meaningless.
Historically the evidence shows that most new leaders get a bounce. According to David Farrar, of the twenty leadership changes of a major party since 1974, seventeen of them saw a bounce in the party vote in the next One News poll. So what we saw on Monday night was nothing new, extraordinary or earth-shattering although Jessica Mutch McKay and Jenna Lynch seemed to think that it was.
What is clear is that the earlier a poll was taken the better the chance of a good result for the Labour Party.
McKay and Lynch’s comments following the poll results left little to the imagination. Jessica was slightly more measured but was certainly excited to definitely have Labour back in the race. So excited was One News they led their bulletin with the poll ahead of the disastrous floods. This illustrates what a biased unprofessional left-wing outfit the channel is. A National Government should rid itself of the beast and the financial liability it has become.
Over on Newshub Jenna was finding it hard to remain seated. Excitement was oozing from every part of her anatomy. She had Labour over the finish line before National had left the starting gates. This type of heavily biased journalism is a disgrace. Unfortunately, it is all too common these days. Professional journalism has succumbed to journalists letting their own personal biases get in the way of objective reporting.
The two most reliable polls, Curia and Roy Morgan will be out in the next couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how they compare with this week’s polls. Hipkins has a tough year ahead with difficult problems he’ll have to address both inside and outside his party. When the rubber hits the road we can then start to take notice of the polls. Until then the two ladies can have their ‘day in the sun’ but, like the Auckland weather, the sun won’t shine forever.
Their on-screen amateur antics highlight the need for a BFD NewsDesk which is now becoming more urgent by the day. Please donate to make this happen.
