Pull Down the Blinds

Joanne Nova
Jo is a prize-winning science graduate in molecular biology and has given keynotes about the medical revolution, gene technology and aging at conferences.

Welcome to Bananaustralia.

The Premier of NSW issued death threats about electricity bills to get attention:

“If you use electricity this afternoon, you’re going to get killed in terms of how much you pay, the amount of money (to run appliances) this afternoon will be through the roof,” he said.

The NSW Minister Penny Sharpe told eight million people to avoid using the dishwashers and pool pumps between three and eight pm, close the doors and blinds, and turn the air conditioner up to a higher temperature. “Stay hydrated and avoid going outside in the hotter parts of the day where possible,” she said, like she was talking to four-year-olds.

All around New South Wales and in Canberra people spent the day wandering around turning off lights and appliances, and rearranging their plans. Public servants were asked to pull the blinds and turn off appliances at work. The four water utilities, the dams, and water management, were also asked to help. And the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) condition was instigated, which means some businesses were paid to stop using as much electricity. Presumably, Tomago smelter  had to go on an electron-diet – since it uses 10 per cent of the entire state’s electricity. But who needs aluminium right?

So most of the state tried to do something useful in the dim light, so they could pay the rest of the state to do nothing.

But it’s OK, because you could do whatever you wanted up until three pm:

Energy should be used as normal prior to three pm when rooftop solar panels are powering much of the state. During the peak from three pm to eight pm, every small step to reduce demand makes a difference.

You can take your productivity and stir-fry it.

The human brain is the most complex known thing in the universe, and this week millions of those biological powerhouses were distracted from whatever they do best by the complexity of living in a world of Green witchcraft trying to make the weather perfect next century. The productivity loss might have been modest this time, but the long term trend is a slow motion trainwreck. The more weather dependent generators we have, the more time we waste thinking about electricity. Should we cook dinner for 10pm? The kids will be hungry.

Killer electricity prices came anyway – $17,500 a MWh for a whole hour

All the effort stopped the blackouts, but they didn’t stop the bank raid. Wholesale electricity prices hit the price cap Tuesday and Wednesday.

Despite all the solar power Australians are swimming in, the bonfire started at 2.30 pm and lasted a full sizzling hour. Even though many prices in the wholesale market are hedged, that square wave on an 11 gigawatt grid is a $200 million dollar price signal. The people writing those futures contracts for next year got the message they will have to raise their forward contracts. The price spikes we see today turn up in our electricity bills sometime down the track.

AEMO

Say what?  You were surprised by 38 degrees in Sydney in November?

Summer came early, say all the people looking for something to blame. On Wednesday the temperature reached 38°C at Sydney airport. Barely five years ago in 2019 there were nine days that November above 30°C. Thirty per cent of the whole month was above 30.

It hit 40°C at Sydney airport on November in 2006. There were six days that month over 30C. Somehow, with barely any renewables and no batteries at all, the lights stayed on thanks to coal power. Paul McArdle noted at the time that during the 40°C heat, the whole national grid used 29GW of electricity but there was 6GW of surplus power in reserve and ready to go. When electricity was cheap, and no one had to hide behind the blinds or cook dinner after 9pm, the coal-fired grid had a 21 per cent reserve plant margin.

If renewables fail we should do more renewables:

Experts divided on state’s energy woes following blackout fears

By Alex Dimitriadi and Robert White, the Australian

Mr Bowen blamed volatility in the electricity grid on coal-fired power stations, saying on Thursday that they were its “biggest threat”, spruiking a second-term Labor government’s plan to ­prioritise renewables and underpinned by gas.

“The least reliable part of our energy grid is coal-fired power,” he said. “There hasn’t been a day in the last 18 months when we haven’t had a breakdown in a coal-fired power station.

Someone needs to tell our Minister of Energy that there hasn’t been a day in the last 18 months when solar didn’t fail.

There was not a single day we could make the wind blow at 6pm on command like we do every day for gas.

There was not a single day when retail electricity prices were cheap.

“What the Australian Energy Market Operator told me was that batteries were essential for getting NSW through yesterday.”

What the AEMO should have shown you was this graph done by one man (why can’t the AEMO draw graphs as useful as Andrew Miskelly?).

Where are the batteries? Not visible. What kept the lights on: black coal, brown coal, and when solar failed as the clouds came over, natural gas arrived to save the day.

Seems people at the AEMO were sweating bullets this week, because they are rushing to sign new reserve contracts.

Energy operator expected to seal long-term reserves in bid to prevent more blackout warnings

The Australian Energy Market Operator is expected to imminently agree to new reserve contracts that once agreed to will allow the agency extra capacity ahead of a critical summer period.

The contracts, which could be signed within days, come as authorities brace for a summer when demand for electricity will spike and the industry remains anxious after a precarious day in NSW on Wednesday when the grid struggled to meet demand.

– Colin Packham, the Australian

Why didn’t they see this coming?

This article originally appeared at JoNova and was republished by CFACT.