LionRed
The author is based in the UK at the moment (ex-pat Kiwi) and travels the world as a consultant in developing countries working on business development. As a result, he is totally cynical about NGOs, the UN and WHO etc. He is regularly exposed to contact with governments and diplomatic agencies. He has regularly commuted to Myanmar and South East Asia over the past three years so is able to understand what China is up to in the world.
After two weeks of beautiful, unseasonable weather with blue skies, sunshine and a high of 24C I was going to start with the usual comment of “it’s still sunny in the UK”. However, that is not the case as it’s raining today. This is the best news all week as it will discourage people from trying to go to the beach, sunbathe or just generally get out and about and ignore the lockdown regulations.
Despite all the media reports of people blatantly flouting these regulations which have been colourfully reported in the MSM, the government is getting progressively worried about the generally successful compliance with the regulations. The lockdown has been far more successful than the government had planned and is achieving an extremely high degree of compliance. Her Majesty’s government is now concerned that with the economy tanking big time, when the restrictions are eased the inhabitants of the UK will not quickly return to work, severely damaging the economy.
According to leaked information, the people are in general scared, will not trust the new situation and will be wary of exposing themselves to perceived risks by resuming previous work and social habits. This is also due to a general fear of COVID-19 and a mistrust of the politicians. This would have a catastrophic effect on the already depressed economy and have unforeseen consequences for both the economic and social structure of the UK. This trust is being eroded by MPs stupidly increasing their expense allowance by 10,000 GBP to compensate them for working from home.
The good news is that Boris Johnson came out of hospital and is recuperating at Chequers, with a recommendation of limited duties for a month. Whilst he was ill, it elicited the usual responses from the left and rather than repeat the vitriol here, they varied from wishing him harm to looking forward to his demise. The new leader of the Labour party, who seems to be more politically aware than Jeremy Corbyn, has stamped on it at once. He is proving to be more of a threat to the Conservatives, but it remains to be seen whether that is sustainable or just a comparison with the performance of his predecessor.
The good news about Boris Johnson comes with a downside. Because he is in recovery and under medical instructions to keep his workload to a minimum, a vacuum has been created in the government and they are desperate for leadership. At times it seems as if they are in a state of panic with conflicting views coming to the fore and no one getting a grip on the police overreaching in the implementation of the regulations. In part, this is reflected in the public’s attitude being formed as to how they will behave on the lifting of the regulations.
This leadership issue needs resolving quickly as there are areas that need attention and the management of them is rapidly unraveling.
Loans to business/economy
There are problems in implementing the policy of business loans. The chancellor introduced a very generous loan package with a view to giving life support to businesses to ensure that they could get through the lockdown and survive to resume business again when it would be over. Unfortunately, the banks are being very conservative in the provision of government supported loans. They are only lending to what they define as viable businesses. This is a problem as their definition of viable differs from the government’s definition.
The loan is intended to be a lifeline to ensure that enterprises don’t go under due to the COVID-19 situation. The problem is that a business which needs the loan to survive will in all probability not be viable according to the bank’s interpretation and their application of current risk analysis. With the loan a business would probably be able to survive the current crisis and be a viable business, employing people at the end of it. The government guarantees 80% of the loan and will pay the first year’s interest. This will possibly be 12.5%, so in effect, the banks’ risk is 7.5% of the loan amount. This loan is not available for start-ups, so there will be a major impact on the entrepreneurship culture which has been developing in the UK.
The business support package is 330 billion GBP and of this 1.1 billion had been loaned to a total of 6,020 businesses. The log jam is happening in the banks, and whether it is reluctance to lend, lack of staff or overenthusiastic bureaucratic application of the rules to requests for the loans is impossible to say now. Whatever the reason, the poor performance and application of this policy is storing up problems for the near future.
Public borrowing is ballooning. It now seems to be a good job that the UK has had 10 years of austerity which left it with headroom to do this. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. The Bank of England is increasing its loan facility to the UK government and there may be bond issues (quantitative easing). This has resulted in 200 billion GBP injected into the economy. The key question is will this be sufficient and how long will it be needed? The UK economy is gradually slipping out of control.
And it’s not just raining – it’s pouring.
General situation
Two weeks ago, I made a comment that perhaps knife crime would be down. Well, preliminary figures show that all crimes are down by 21%. Burglaries are down by 30%. I can imagine that senior members of the constabulary would be locked in a room thinking about the possibility that if they carried on this policy of isolation past the current crisis then crime figures would all go down. OOPS silly me! If crime figures come down, then bang goes the argument for a bigger budget for the police.
The police seem to have calmed down a little (perhaps someone has had a quiet word) and are generally well supported by the public. The problem now seems to lie with the local government exceeding their remit. York city council has banned attendance at funerals in the council’s crematorium. They only allow the officiating person (vicar, imam etc) to be in attendance. All other people must stay outside the building.
There are reports emerging now of a shortage of coffins. This compounds the shortage of body bags due to the inability to supply promptly from (you’ve guessed it) China. Funeral directors report that they may not be able to carry out funerals because of this.
Dentists are reportedly close to closing as they have no income.
It is also coming to light that the UK was under-prepared for the pandemic, given that they had held a three-day training exercise in 2016 to prepare for one. It was reported in The New Statesman that the then Chief Medical Officer, Professor Sally Davies, told the World Innovation in Health conference after the exercise that it resulted in many fatalities due to the national health system being overwhelmed.
She explained:
“It became clear that we could not cope with the excess bodies…it becomes very worrying about the deaths, and what that will do to society as you start to get all those deaths.”
Davies added that any such impact of a pandemic would be made worse by the lack of vaccines and a lack of solidarity in fighting it.
The exercise also exposed a chronic lack of basic equipment to fight such a pandemic – including PPE for health workers, ventilators and critical care beds.
There is now a big push for a major inquiry into the government’s handling of the situation, after things settle down. Or in UK government terms, for inquiry read whitewash or kicking the ball into touch, and they will find minor procedural issues and a suitable scapegoat will be found (the last one to duck for cover).
The excrement is going to interfere with the efficient circulation from the air conditioning system. (That’s just me getting into UK bureaucratic mode).
Finally a little bit of overseas news. The EU issued a formal apology to Italy for not taking the situation seriously enough and not offering them help in the early stages. The head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva then chipped in with her two dollars’ worth and said that due to the economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19 the UK should request an extension to the negotiation period before finally completing the details of the exit from the EU. Georgieva is Bulgarian and was previously the vice-president for budget and human resources in the Juncker administration of the EU. That would result in the UK continuing to make payments to the EU. Brexit looks more and more like a sensible move, and there is increasing discontent in the EU, both from the South who resent being screwed by the North and by the North who resent constantly baling out the South. One day the dam of resentment will burst.
I don’t usually subscribe to conspiracy theories, but it is all getting very odd up here in the Northern hemisphere.
I was going to give more information on the situation with care homes and the policy of hospitals pushing the elderly into care homes with no COVID-19 testing having been done, in order to free up beds. Care home deaths are ballooning with doctors being allowed to refer to cause of death as anything other than COVID-19. Care homes are struggling to find PPE. Rather than go on about it now perhaps I will give a report in more detail next time, which I guarantee will horrify you. I have had the word “cull” used to me by care home professionals.
And it is absolutely hosing down now. Can we please have the sunshine back?
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