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With the 2023 elections done and dusted (almost), it’s now time for everyone to offer their post-election analysis.
So here are my observations for this year.
Rise of the minor parties: On election night, we saw Labour grieving and National celebrating. But the happiest were the minor parties. ACT took a seat from National. The Greens gained two ‘safe’ seats from Labour. The rest of the votes went to parties that didn’t get in.
More awareness of third-party advertising: Despite the fact that ‘social justice’ organisations and unions have always advertised during election season, the media suddenly decided this was an issue when ‘right-wing’ organisations did this as well. There was no investigation from the media into who was funding the Council of Trade Unions and their attack ads against Luxon or about ActionStation and their ‘Triple the Vote’ campaign, but plenty of questions about groups concerned by Labour’s tax and agricultural policies. I believe this indicates the rise of third parties in political advertising.
Rise of new parties: Never have I seen an election (in my lifetime) with the number of new parties formed or alliances formed. Democracy New Zealand, Freedoms New Zealand, New Zealand Loyal, Leighton Baker Party, New Nation Party and NewZeal all burst onto the political scene this election season and surged in the polls to one per cent despite only forming in a matter of months. Even close to polling day, parties were forming with the Democratic Alliance and Women’s Rights Party registering quite rapidly. While they may not have made it in, it was admittedly a decent effort. I think these minor parties should continue this momentum and try again next time.
Populist entryism: While it was nice to see the return of Winston; it forced the mainstream parties to become more populist. Never would I have imagined the Maori Party talking about the threats of globalism, or ACT raging against the Wellington beltway or even National talking about the ‘bloated bureaucracy’ in Wellington. Not to mention the regionalist and localist policies we are seeing from both National and ACT in trying to curb central government and return power to communities, along with concerns about the consultancy lobby.
The Resurrection of Winston: It was refreshing to see Winston once again rise and return to the kingmaker position – a different Winston who has gone from professional populism to real populism, discussing the issues in the country and distancing himself from Labour, which he is now portraying as politically corrupt. It was funny seeing a desperate David Seymour keep talking about “the voters” during negotiations.
The rise of alternative media: The mainstream media were not the only outlets politicians were willing to talk to. It was good to see some politicians realising our mainstream media hated them, instead talking to independent media as much as they could. This was the only way to reach the anti-establishment voting base who don’t trust mainstream media.
What was very telling was who was and was not willing to go onto the likes of the Platform and Reality Check Radio because it showed us who was willing to be challenged. It was also good to see lobby groups with an online presence offer exposure of groups like Family First, challenging the leaders who dared to face their questions. This is something I discussed in my article about the Australian elections, where the alternative media took up the Fourth Estate duties abandoned by mainstream media.
The freedom vote had an effect: I truly believe that the freedom vote still has a voice in Parliament as a result of this election, just not in the way it expected. More importantly, the anti-establishment voice is beginning to grow in Parliament. As with the Australian elections, the mainstream parties bled votes to the freedom parties; even where they didn’t, minor parties got in because they were forced to become more populist and to discuss the issues that actually mattered. I believe National won because they were forced to become more populist.
The last two points are things which will happen around the world as we see a massive political realignment away from the left-right paradigm.
At the end of the night, the real winners were the voters who made the effort to express who they wanted to represent them.
