Thursday saw the Taxpayers Union/Curia poll deliver average results for the National Party and dreadful results for Christopher Luxon. Now the Roy Morgan Poll is out and it echoes the Curia Poll. Both show a static position for National and Labour regaining the lead.
Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for February 2023 shows support increased for the governing Labour Party in February, up 3% points to 33% and support for the governing Labour-led Government was up 3.5% to 45.5%.
Support for the Labour-led Government is now level with the National/Act NZ opposition, also on 45.5%, unchanged from January.
The results for February show the New Zealand Election later in 2022 is on a knife-edge with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.
The main Opposition National has maintained its support in February, unchanged on 32% while support for potential governing partners Act NZ is also unchanged on 13.5%. Support for the Greens has increased slightly, up 0.5% to 12.5% in February.
Maori Party in the box seat to determine New Zealand’s next Government
The results for February suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party on 3.5%, down 1% point.
Support for New Zealand First has fallen short of the 5% threshold in February at 2%, down 3% points from February and not enough to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.
A further 3.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 0.5% points from a month ago including 2.5% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and 0.5% (unchanged) who support the New Conservative Party.
A potential 58 seats for a Labour/Greens coalition and 58 seats for a potential National/Act NZ coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government
If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the Labour/Greens coalition would score 58 seats, level with the 58 seats for a potential National/Act NZ coalition – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.
The projected results show the Maori Party with 4 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).
So, Curia says a one seat majority for National/Act and Roy Morgan says a hung parliament with the Maori Party holding sway.
There are no good outcomes from either of those for Christopher Luxon. A one seat majority means an inability to progress much needed reform. A hung parliament, where the Maori Party holds sway is not good at all. If the Roy Morgan results were translated into an election the racist co-governance agenda and all its racist fury will be back on the agenda.
For National it is no longer an option for them to keep their powder dry. Labour has got momentum, and National is sliding. Things are going to have to change.
But how? Look up the history of bald men winning elections. They are few and far between. Dwight D. Eisenhower managed it, but he had won two wars! Add in bald men with negative favourables and you can see Christopher Luxon’s monumental task before you.
Things are going to have to change really fast. Time is running out for National.
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