Summarised by Centrist
Roy Morgan’s August survey claims a “surge in support for the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition now on 50% up 4 percentage points from a month ago.”
National, ACT and NZ First together are said to have dropped to 46.5 percent, “its lowest level of support this year.”
Labour is recorded at 34 percent, which the release describes as “the highest level of support for the party since August 2022 when former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern still led the party.”
The Greens are listed at 13.5 percent and the Maori Party at 2.5 percent. Roy Morgan’s seat calculator gives the bloc 62 seats compared to 58 for the current government.
The poll also reports that “3% (up 2 percentage points) support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.)” while all other minor parties combined are put at only 0.5 percent. A surprising result given that TOP has no leader, no seats and no visible policy platform.
The poll was conducted by telephone with 873 electors from July 28 to August 24. At that size, the margin of error is roughly three points, meaning a reported “3%” for TOP could in reality be close to zero.
Roy Morgan further claims an “overwhelming majority of younger women support the Parliamentary Opposition” with support at 76.5 percent compared to just 20 percent for the governing coalition.
Among older men, the situation is reversed, with 66.5 percent backing the government compared to 31 percent for the opposition.
