The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out and it is a ‘steady as she goes’ poll, with a slight gain for National and a slight drop for Labour.
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for June 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has increased marginally in June, up 1% point to 49.5% with a small lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 45.5% (down 2.5% points).
For the National-led Government support for National increased 1.5% points to 35%, support for ACT decreased 0.5% points to 9.5% while support for NZ First was again unchanged at 5.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour was down 2.5% points to 27.5%, support for the Greens was up 0.5% points to 14.5% and support for the Maori Party was up 0.5% points to 3.5%.
Roy Morgan
What does that mean for seats?
The survey results for June would lead to 62 seats (down six seats from the election) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to 58 seats (up three seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 44 seats (down five seats), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win seven seats (down one seat).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 35 seats (up one seat), Greens support would mean 18 seats (up three seats) and the Maori Party would win five seats (down one seat).
Roy Morgan
National should be polling at well above the level they are at now. The problem appears in the demographics.
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ACT/NZ First coalition government on 56.5%, almost double the opposition Labour/Greens/Maori Party on only 38.5% – a gap of 18% points.
In contrast, a majority of women are behind the opposition Labour/Greens/Maori on 51% – ahead of the governing National/ACT/NZ First on 43.5% – a gap of 7.5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 66% supporting National/ACT/NZ First more than double the 31% supporting the Labour/Greens/Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (41.5%), ACT (15.5%) and NZ First (9%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18–49 there is a slight edge for the governing coalition with 47% supporting National/ACT/NZ First compared to 46% that support the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party – a gap of only 1% point.
Women aged 50+ also narrowly favour the governing National/ACT/NZ First coalition on 49%, just ahead of the Opposition Labour/Greens/Maori Party on 47.5% – a gap of only 1.5% points. Support for Labour is clearly strongest amongst this age group with the support of 33.5%.
Younger women aged 18–49 are the biggest supporters of the Opposition Labour/Greens/Maori Party on 55% and well ahead of the governing National/ACT/NZ First coalition on 38% – a gap of 17% points.
Support for the Greens is strongest amongst the younger age groups with 23.5% of young men aged 18–49 supporting the party and 19.5% of young women aged 18–49 supporting the party.
Roy Morgan
National appears to have a woman problem, and it isn’t one that can be fixed with quotas. A brave person would suggest that women are letting down their husbands by voting for Labour and the Greens despite any semblance of competence; meaning they vote on ‘feelz’.
That is hard to address, short of selecting vacuous, arm-flapping dolts who achieve little to nothing but have great bumper sticker slogans.
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