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A jubilant Scott Morrison, “ScoMo” to his fellow Australians said, “I’ve always believed in miracles. I’m standing with the three biggest miracles in my life here tonight”, referring to Jenny, his wife and Lily and Abbey, his daughters – “and tonight we’ve been delivered another one.”
The Guardian News reported that Morrison made multiple references to his faith in God in his victory speech, as he claimed the win, “We are an amazing country of amazing people. God bless Australia.”
Morrison had an unpredicted victory in the 2019 election. Bill Shorten, the centre-left Labour Party leader, was sure he was going to win. The polls had him winning a majority Government, with Morrison trailing. The voters however swung behind Morrison on the strength of their concerns about the economy, tax, and personal leadership, and “ScoMo” became the Liberal Prime Minister. A group of voters did not tell anyone how they were going to vote. That is why Morrison mentioned them in his acceptance speech, saying, “how good are quiet Australians”.
Donald Trump also unexpectedly won the last election in the USA. Jack Tame was the NZ TV1 journalist in the USA and it was obvious he was excited and ready to celebrate a Clinton win. It was a certainty as the polls and media forecasts favoured Trump’s opponent and reported Trump as the underdog. Republican Trump won in 2016 and took office in January 2017, defeating the Democrats’ former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, much to the surprise of the pundits and Tame.
The polls got it wrong. Where did these unexpected votes come from?
New Zealand has one of its most important elections next month, due to the Labour-led Government’s out-of-control spending which has devastated the economy. The polls three weeks out from election day have Labour 14 points ahead of National. Some of the 11% undecided kiwis may be keeping their preferences to themselves.
“Shy Tory” is a name given by the British opinion polling companies. According to Wikipedia, this is a phenomenon first observed by psephologists (political scientists who deal with the study and scientific analysis of elections) in the early 1990s. The accepted explanation was that so-called “Shy Tories” were voting Conservative after telling the pollsters they would not do that, or more likely, stating that they were undecided.
The 2015 UK opinion polls underestimated the Conservative vote. Most polls predicted a hung parliament, but the result was an unanticipated Conservative majority.
Many New Zealanders are aware polls do not tell the full story. We have witnessed the “Shy Tory” effect recently in other countries and it is possible the latest polls here underestimate the number of conservative voters.
In the USA, people are divided over Trump. A relative there said people could lose friends if they mentioned they liked Trump, let alone tell them they intend to vote for him. So, they keep quiet.
A Kiwi friend today said her young hairdresser does not tell people he will be voting for Judith Collins because Ardern is perceived to be the untouchable favourite.
It is disturbing to note in UK Reddit, the Shy Tory effect:
How being young and admitting you vote for Conservative became social suicide. It appears that they are driven underground.
Young people know they will get abused, so keep their opinions to themselves.
It was noticeable how fiery the recent Young Voters’ debate was. Rather than going head to head in a fair debate, there were raised irate voices and faces pulled, by Kiri Allan (Labour) and Chloe Swarbrick (Greens). Chloe reached out and hit the table in front of Simeon Brown beside her. Allan and Swarbrick talked angrily and constantly over the other three. There were some simmering comments from frustrated online listeners, wanting Swarbrick to stop mouthing off.
For the record, Robert Griffith (NZ First), Simeon Brown (National) and Brooke van Velden (Act) managed their points well in a hostile environment.
New Zealand’s voters could swing behind Collins on the strength of their concerns about the economy, tax, and personal leadership preferences. They may remain” Shy Tories” about their choice, and quietly slip their National vote into the ballot box.
There is a road to climb, but New Zealand may be in for a miracle.
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