From original reports, the Omicron variant of Covid-19 is a considerably milder disease than the previous Delta. This, combined with its high transmissibility has encouraged some researchers to suggest this is good news and signals the end of the pandemic. However, we are starting to see more deaths in our daily Covid statistics. Does this mean it is more deadly than we thought, or is something else going on?
We need to be aware that the numbers of deaths will increase but that they are correlated with Covid cases and not necessarily caused by them. In fact, the counting criteria for Covid deaths are so flawed that the relationship is clearly not causal! This is because the newly dead are tested for the presence of Covid and, if positive, are added to the Covid deaths count – even if the cause of death is obviously not Covid. A case in point was a gunshot homicide that happened to test positive! This is obviously ridiculous.
It is easy to sound callous when talking about death in a statistical sense; death is a tragedy, as everyone who dies is someone’s friend or relative. However, we need to look at the numbers and get context to avoid being terrified by the Covid numbers. By way of context, pre-Covid influenza and pneumonia killed about 800 people yearly (2-3 a day). I must add that those numbers are derived from clinical examination so are reasonably reliable, unlike the supposed ‘Covid deaths’!
As Omicron continues to infect the population, at some point almost everyone who dies will have been in contact with it. Thus we can expect the so-called ‘Covid deaths’ to form a significant proportion of all the people who die. A more sensible perspective is possible by examining what happens to the all-cause mortality data. This cannot be easily spun: a death is a death. We have publicly available data from which average daily numbers (about 90) can be calculated for several years.
So we have a reasonable metric to use to (eventually) see the real impact of Omicron on our population. If the daily ‘Covid deaths’ rise significantly above 100 per day then we will be able to conclude that possibly Omicron is having a bigger impact than we thought. However even that will need careful analysis: e.g. the lockdowns in 2020 and 2021, plus social distancing, probably saved many vulnerable folk from getting influenza (in fact almost eliminated it from the country) and these folk may not be able to avoid Omicron, so this year could be an anomaly. Also, almost everyone has had several doses of the Covid vaccines, so there could be enough fallout from the various serious adverse reactions to noticeably increase our deaths from strokes, clots and heart issues.
In conclusion, right now it is not so clear what will happen or how tricky it will be to interpret data – so ongoing observation and measurement will be needed!
