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Summarised by Centrist
Serious youth offending is falling nationwide, but new Oranga Tamariki data shows the national picture masks sharp increases in several major regions.
The overall number of serious and persistent young offenders is down about 14 to 16 percent from the June 2023 baseline. Northland, Tasman, Wellington and the Bay of Plenty show some of the biggest drops, with declines between roughly 28 and 39 percent.
But three large regions are moving in the opposite direction. Auckland has stalled after an earlier rise, Canterbury has been above baseline for months, and Waikato is also trending upward. At district level, the Eastern and Central police districts sit above baseline alongside Waitematā, which has recently climbed.
In the Eastern district, earlier data showed a surge of about 56 percent compared to baseline, though small populations mean sharper swings quarter to quarter. Rotorua and Taupō have only just dipped below baseline despite Bay of Plenty’s strong overall improvement.
The number of serious youth offenders peaked in late 2023 and has generally returned to pre-Covid levels since mid-2024. But burglary, while down significantly, remains the most common offence for this group, and robbery and assault have begun rising again.
The government is claiming progress toward its 2029 target of reducing serious youth offenders by 15 percent, but improvements are uneven. Intensive case management teams are now operating in Hamilton, Rotorua and Christchurch to address hotspots.
Read more over at The NZ Herald (paywalled)
