Quick Hit: Where National’s 2023 Voters Went
RNZ-Reid Research shows only 56.9 per cent of National’s 2023 voters still back the party. ACT and NZ First now hold 18.4 per cent of them.
National Party
Williamson on the Seats That Could Decide
Williamson also goes through the marginal electorates where he says the candidate vote will decide the result.
Two Invoices, No Cheque: Winston Has the Only Tax Cut Worth Having
Labour says Luxon costs you $6302 a year. National says Labour will cost you $2263. Neither of them is cutting your income tax. The only party offering a business tax cut it has costed is NZ First.
Quick Hit: Now Is Not The Time
National’s fiscal plan offers no income tax cuts until the books are in surplus in 2028/29, only a “pathway to potential tax relief”. Nicola Willis still called National “the party of low tax”.
Luxon Will Pick Up the Phone
Luxon has ruled out Opportunity, but he never said he wouldn’t take the call. On current polling the overhang strategy is the only way to keep Opportunity out and the coalition in.
Quick Hit: Two Ticks Against Your Partner
Paul Goldsmith, sixth on National's list, is door-knocking Epsom for two ticks blue against David Seymour. National is polling with no list headroom and needs ACT's seats to govern.
Winston Brought the Majority
NZ First is up to 12 per cent and 16 seats and that is what puts the coalition on 65. National’s party vote still buys no list MP. Electorate vote National, party vote ACT or NZ First.
Reality Wants Its Money Back
David Seymour has called the government’s path to surplus “heroic”, four days before National shows its fiscal plan. When the junior partner says that about your books, believe him.
Three Polls Say Split Your Vote
Tuesday’s three polls all show the majors bleeding to the minors. Neither Chris is liked. National’s list lift is a forlorn hope. Electorate National or best candidate; party vote ACT or NZ First.
Luxon Is Finished, So Split Your Vote And Save The Coalition
National 25.9 per cent, its worst since 2020. Neither bloc gets to 61. Luxon survived two recent confidence votes and the party is paying for it. Vote National in the electorate, party vote ACT or NZ First.
If the Plan Matches National’s, the Bill Is What Labour Is Hiding
Labour kept Willis’s $2.4b allowance, hit surplus in the same year, costed one pay equity claim, and parked the rest in $10.5b of “headroom”. Luxon v Hipkins is Tuesday. Ask who signed the IOU.
Desperation Is a Stinky Cologne
Key says it will be tight getting Willis, Bishop, Goldsmith and Brownlee home. About 125,000 extra party votes for just one list MP, only if National holds 39 electorates. When the scare is Laws and Henry, panic is a confession.
Hipkins the Hypocrite
Hipkins called Harry Mowbray’s split-vote campaign an absolute rort by wealthy entrenched interests. Under MMP an overhang is a feature, not a loophole. Chippy only hates it when his mates aren’t running it. If it is absolute fraud, rule Te Pāti Māori out. He will not.
One Point In Mt Albert
Spinoff-Curia has Helen White on 33 and Melissa Lee on 32 in Mt Albert. Eighteen votes decided it in 2023. ACT and NZ First should clear the field for Lee. Every National electorate win without a list seat is another box for Willis, Bishop and Goldsmith.
Quick Hit: Willis’s Better Books Came Partly Out of Your Trolley
Treasury has the deficit at $6.8 billion and next year within $0.8 billion of surplus. It says that is partly inflation lifting the tax take while spending allowances stay fixed, which is how Willis got there with no new taxes.
The Insanely Stupid Idea Is Two Ticks Blue
Greens on a record 16 per cent, National and Labour stuck on 28 per cent and Luxon calls the overhang an ‘insanely stupid idea’. The stupid idea is sticking with two ticks blue while the polls sink.