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Calling a snap election backfired on her predecessor, but, for Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi, this time it looks set to pay off. Polls indicate that Takaichi and the Liberal Democratic Party are on course for a decisive victory next week. New polling from Asahi suggests the LDP will win an outright majority after years of instability in Japanese politics, with four prime ministers in five years.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) are on track to secure a landslide victory in the Feb 8 election, while the opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) is projected to lose more than half of the seats it held before Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the Lower House, according to one of the latest opinion polls by a media outlet.
A weekend poll conducted by the Asahi Shimbun, the results of which were published Sunday, shows the ruling bloc could win more than 300 of the Lower House’s 465 seats, and even secure a two-thirds majority.
Other polls also indicate the LDP achieving enough seats for a stable majority.
According to the Asahi, the LDP is expected to win more than 210 single-seat districts, up from the 138 it held before the Lower House was dissolved on Jan 23, and surpass the 60 seats it secured through proportional representation in the October 2024 general election.
The JIP, meanwhile, has struggled to gain traction beyond its Osaka stronghold and may fall short of the 34 seats it held prior to the dissolution […]
The CRA, a new centrist party formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and Komeito, is projected to lose more than half of the 106 single-seat districts it held previously and retain only 32.
There’s still some room in play, however. Twenty-four per cent of people polled in a JNN poll said where they will direct their preferences in Japan’s proportional electoral system. Still, a clear majority expressed hopes for an LDP-JIP majority victory.
A landslide win would significantly strengthen Takaichi’s grip on power and give her political cover to press ahead with aggressive fiscal measures, including cuts to the consumption tax. While such policies may support households facing rising living costs, they have also revived market concerns about Japan’s long-term fiscal discipline. Japan’s public debt already exceeds twice the size of its economy […]
Attention now turns to Sunday’s vote and whether the poll’s prediction of a landslide is borne out. If confirmed, Takaichi would emerge with a strong mandate despite her coalition’s current minority position in the upper house. Markets will closely watch her post-election signals on spending plans and tax policy, particularly any concrete steps toward cutting or suspending the consumption tax, which could further influence bond yields and broader market sentiment.
The outcome will also have broader geopolitical ramifications. Takaichi is notably hawkish regarding China and is openly pushing a referendum to reform Japan’s pacificist constitution and allow the nation to take a more active role in international military operations for the first time since WWII.
