The latest Taxpayers Union Curia Poll makes for good reading if you come from the centre-right. National and New Zealand First made gains (two per cent and 1.7 per cent) while ACT stayed pretty much unchanged. The party to suffer most on the left was Labour (down 3.5 per cent) and now back in the mid-20s. The result has National on 37.6 per cent, New Zealand First on 7.3 per cent and ACT on 9.1 per cent. On the left, Labour registered 25.9 per cent, the Greens 12.5 per cent, pretty much unchanged from June, and the Maori Party down slightly to 3.5 per cent.
The main benefit from these numbers for the centre-right is the difference in the number of seats in the House: National 47, ACT 11 and New Zealand First nine, 67 in all. Labour 33, the Greens 16 and the Maori Party six, total 55 giving a majority of 12. This is a handy buffer for the centre-right and I wouldn’t be surprised if it increased further between now and the next election.
The other main beneficiary from the poll is Christopher Luxon, who has hitherto been underperforming. In this poll he has surged 10 points as preferred Prime Minister to 35 per cent, while Chris Hipkins fell one point to 19 per cent. Both have a favourability rating of plus six per cent. Luxon badly needed this boost to establish his credentials as PM. There will be some who still have reservations as to whether he is the complete package. I do believe that he is now making his mark in the areas that count.
Where Luxon is scoring is by applying his business acumen when talking to other political leaders and potential investors on such topics as trade and infrastructure. Having led major businesses such as Unilever and Air New Zealand, he will be at ease having these types of discussions and projecting an attractive image of the country. He describes himself as an extrovert, which is also a plus in this environment, and it appears the public are now seeing this.
The other thing helping is that the Coalition Government is now past the ‘repeal’ stage, which had to come first, and are now starting to implement its agenda in a business-like manner. Targets are being set all for ministers; some of which are very aspirational, and there is nothing wrong with that. Ministers need to be kept on their toes and they will be constantly monitored by Luxon, who is no stranger to this businesslike method.
In order for the above to work you need capable people in ministerial portfolios. A number have impressed me and apparently also the public: Karen Chhour, Nicole McKee, Chris Penk, Erica Stanford, Chris Bishop, Shane Jones, Louise Upston, Mark Mitchell, Nicola Willis, Simeon Brown and Brooke van Velden, plus the three party leaders. That’s approximately two-thirds of the cabinet.
It is not surprising Labour is going backwards. Their performance in parliament is pitiful, raising puerile points of order and with nothing substantive to offer. The most vocal are the ones I class as ‘bully boys’ and they do not endear themselves to the people. The Greens, according to this poll, are performing well in Auckland – goodness knows why. What is attractive about a group who seem to live permanently in a bugger’s muddle is beyond me. Then there is the Maori Party, whose actions and words the rest of us moved on from a long time ago.
So I think this poll, conducted on both mobiles and landlines, is fairly accurate. Most are starting to see the intentions of the coalition and most appear to be in agreement. They can see efforts being made in trade, energy, education, health, welfare and the economy: all areas high on the list of priorities for both the government and the public at large. This augurs well for better times ahead.
