Weeks since the state election, Tasmania still doesn’t have an official winner. Despite the worst election result in their history in the state, though, Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter is still insisting he can form a stable government.
There’s only one problem: to have even a hope of winning government, he would have to break his firmest promise.
Even if Mr Winter got all [independents] on side and won in Bass to secure an 11th seat for Labor, his party would still only have 16 MPs on board, short of the 18 seats required to govern.
To get past that threshold, Labor needs the support of the Greens for confidence and supply.
Except that he’s painted himself into a corner on that one.
This is where Mr Winter, who has repeatedly insisted he won’t do a deal with the Greens, has boxed himself into a corner.
He’s desperately trying to wriggle out of it.
Mr Winter insists his position is clear: Labor will accept the Greens’ backing, but won’t do a deal.
Which is a bit like saying you’re vegetarian, but you’ll still eat chicken and fish.
Is anyone actually buying such obvious bullshit?
Mr Winter seems to be expecting support or backing from the Greens, without giving them any policy concessions or perks […]
How does that arrangement, where there are no guarantees or agreements about what a future government should look like, provide the political stability and certainty that everyone agrees Tasmania needs?
And how could the state governor possibly assent to a government formed by a party that recorded a record-low vote and has no guarantee of supply from its minority partners?
Supply and confidence agreements are always important, but this one seems extra crucial.
After three straight early elections – the last one almost three years earlier than scheduled following a successful no-confidence motion in [Jeremy Rockliff] – every politician knows that whatever new government is formed now has to last.
And there will be great consequences for whichever political outfit is seen to be responsible for sending Tasmanians to another early poll.
Which is exactly what’s happened to Labor. Winter’s childish stunt with the no-confidence motion blew up in his face and he’s been punished at the ballot box. Yet he still thinks he deserves government?
The arrogance of this loser clown is astonishing.
The other complication for Labor is that their terrible election result means they can’t argue they have a mandate to govern, or have received a ringing endorsement from the Tasmanian people.
Mr Winter’s first public audition for the top job could hardly have gone worse.
The party received just 25.9 per cent of the primary vote, a fall of 3.1 per cent from last year’s election.
And Mr Winter’s personal vote wasn’t pretty either. He fell short of a quota in Franklin, receiving fewer votes than Peter George and Liberal Eric Abetz.
In Braddon, Mr Rockliff received more than two quotas, his personal vote 2.7 times higher than Mr Winter’s.
So, where has Winter left Tasmanians?
If Mr Rockliff falls short, Labor can come to power a couple of different ways.
One scenario is that the governor can require Mr Rockliff to test his numbers on the floor of parliament, through a vote of confidence.
If he doesn’t get the numbers, there can then be a similar vote of confidence in a minority government led by Mr Winter.
The other scenario is that the governor recommissions Mr Rockliff’s government, without requiring a confidence vote.
To oust him, there would need to be another no-confidence vote in Mr Rockliff, supported by a majority of MPs, including Labor and the Greens.
From there, Mr Winter would come to power through the same mechanism, a vote of confidence in a minority government led by him.
But Mr Winter doesn’t really want to talk about that second scenario, where there would be a second no-confidence motion in a premier inside just a few months.
Which would stoke Tasmanians’ already low opinion of Winter and his party from merely simmering anger to incandescent fury. Any such Labor government would be lucky to last even one term and the punishment at the next election would be even harsher than the record-low vote this time.
