Good morning. Here are 3 of the 10 stories in today's Ten@10.
1. What will the final balance of power in Parliament be?
David Farrar models the final result as if specials follow the 2023 pattern. His default is that the Government stays on 67 of 131, with the Greens taking one list seat off Labour and winning Wellington Bays back. But if NZ First does just 98 votes worse than last time, and if Wairarapa flips, they could drop to 65 and need Opportunity.
3. Hipkins has almost no path to power
David Farrar says Chris Hipkins has almost no path to power. Even if specials tighten the count and Labour takes Wairarapa, he says the result is a hung Parliament, not a Labour-led government. On figures from a friend's Claude scenarios, he puts Hipkins' chances of forming a government with Opportunity at between 0.15% and 3%, and Luxon's of staying prime minister at 94% or better.
6. Hangover: How to Fix the Overhang Without Breaking MMP
Liam Hehir wants the 11-seat overhang fixed before parties spend the next term trying to engineer a bigger one. He rejects a larger Parliament, a German-style cap that would unseat electorate winners, and the Electoral Commission's 2012 review, and argues that only a single vote, counting for both the local MP and the party list, is both proportional and politically viable.
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