I was asked by Paul Brennan to discuss the implosion within DemocracyNZ. Have a good listen, because these problems exist in almost all small parties.
What I talk about is the over-reliance on what I call “hopium”, the rather addictive ability to suspend reality and cling to hope, because hopium gives the sufferer an unrealistic view of the chances of electoral success of small parties.
I deal in reality not hope. If I dealt in hope, then my thinking and commentary on politics wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s printed on and you’d stop listening to anything I had to say.
Sometimes I am a bit tongue in cheek or use contemporary or even past-humour to get the message across. But the message in this case is that DemocracyNZ and all the other so-called ‘freedom’ parties have been doomed from the start.
That doesn’t mean I am against them: it just means I am using my 40-plus years of political involvement to give an accurate assessment of their prospects.
Hopium doesn’t get you elected; votes do. Facebook likes are not votes. Retweets are not votes. Followers on Instagram or TikTok or whatever platform you use are not votes.
In order to get into parliament, small parties and their leaders need to answer two very simple questions. They are:
- How are you going to win 150,000 party votes? Explain in detail.
- How are you going to win an electorate seat? Explain in detail.
Sadly, most small parties and leaders use a variation of the Gnomes of South Park strategy;
- Start new political party
- ?
- Win
That literally is the strategy and DemocracyNZ is a good example. Hastily launched to beat the umbrella party to the punch, the DemocracyNZ party is entirely based on the hope that Matt King will win Northland. In military parlance that is called a forlorn hope.
Quite why freedom lovers thought that an ex-cop and ex-National party MP was ever going to represent freedom is beyond me. Matt King, and some close to him, have told me that they seriously believe National will do a deal with them. They are wrong: that is not only hopium, it is also deluded.
National will only do a deal with them, or indeed anyone else, if they are dragged kicking and screaming towards having to by results at the ballot box.
Until and unless there is a credible poll showing Matt King is way ahead in Northland, then all it is for them is mass delusion and hopium.
I hope the audio above succinctly explains this. Feel free to debate me on this. I would genuinely love to see a freedom-loving party come to the fore, but right now all they have is high hopes. Those hopes will be dashed come the election.
These are all nice people, but they are also extremely politically naïve.
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