I feel very sad for Todd Muller. Clearly he was not up to the job of leader of the opposition, but clearly he is also a very decent person. Judith has been gracious and considerate in giving him a front bench position and the trade portfolio. She has also done the decent thing by Simon Bridges in elevating him to number 4 in the party hierarchy; Simon may not have been the greatest leader, but he is a smart man and a loyal party member, and he should be rewarded for that.
In fact, as far as I can see, Judith has not put a foot wrong so far. Straightforward in her interviews and fair in her reshuffle, she is getting ticks from many people who probably didn’t think they liked her, but are finding that she isn’t so bad after all.
And she has achieved something else which is very important for the party’s loyal base. With the resignation of both Amy Adams and Nikki Kaye, she has managed to dispose of the liberal, ‘wet’ wing of the party without having to do anything much at all. She offered the education portfolio back to Kaye, as another act of grace, but that has been gratefully taken up by the rising star, Nicola Willis.
Amy Adams is no great loss. Ineffective as an opposition MP, she had already tendered her resignation when Todd Muller talked her out of it. Now she has decided to go after all, but as she already had one foot out of the door, it makes little difference to anyone.
Nikki Kaye is a different story. She is the member for Auckland Central, a popular MP and well liked in most circles. There has been surprise expressed at her resignation, but I really cannot see why. Not many people take a demotion well. Having risen to the giddy heights of deputy leader (and making a hash of it for the few short weeks she was there), it is understandable that she doesn’t want to go backwards. She has decided to try for a different career, and we all wish her well in the future.
But now the liberal base of the party is drastically depleted. The party has been pulled back to its centre-right roots in a matter of 48 hours. Many National supporters simply cannot believe their luck that finally there is a real difference between their favoured party and Labour. Just as happened when Jacinda became Labour leader in 2017, we are now seeing National voters coming home, falling over each other in the process. Voters now have a real choice; hugs, culture wars, wokeness and ineptitude or strong economic management and fiscal responsibility. Collins has said she won’t cut services and won’t increase taxes, but she won’t have hundreds of working groups either. Music to a traditional National voter’s ears.
For those who have been screaming for Collins to be leader for the last few years, personally, I really do think this is the right time for her. We needed to go through a couple of leaders before we got there. Jacinda Ardern showed last time that taking the reins a few weeks before an election can have a positive rather than negative effect, as it gives the new leader a honeymoon period right up to the election. The leaders debates will be fascinating, with Jacinda’s supporters unable to make the usual sexism or misogyny claims that they would have made against a man. Two white women will go head to head; one full of slogans and supposed kindness, but with the handicap that she has a very poor track record and has little to show for her 3 years in power. The other comes complete with years of experience, competence and a solid, down-to-earth approach that will appeal to just about every undecided voter.
I am glad things have worked out the way they did. I am glad that Judith extended a hand to just about everyone in the National caucus, which shows she is serious and wants a united team. She is right when she says that National has a lot of talent, because they have a lot of young up-and-coming MPs in their ranks. The great thing about National, and Judith Collins herself is that she rewards competence, not skin colour. Promoting Shane Reti was a masterstroke, not because he is Maori, but because he is a former surgeon with actual health experience. He beats David Clark and Chris Hipkins hands down.
Let us not fool ourselves that she hasn’t got an uphill struggle in the upcoming election, however. Jacinda is still popular, the media will promote her endlessly and they are already digging up as much dirt as they can on Judith. Her biggest problem, though is probably that the economic carnage hasn’t really got going yet. Most people would always trust National over Labour for economic stewardship, but may be falling into the trap of thinking that things are really not too bad. Let us hope that Judith can get the message across that a vote for Labour is a vote for economic disaster. Knowing Judith, she will manage it.
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