Things just keep going from bad to worse for the “voice” referendum campaigners. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Guardian was trumpeting that their Essential poll was the lone standout from polls that uniformly show support for the referendum slipping further and further into losing territory.
You’ll never guess what happened next!
Support for the Indigenous voice has dipped in the Guardian Essential poll, although more Australians intend to vote yes than no even once undecided voters are removed.
Note that little caveat: once undecided voters are removed. This statistical sleight-of-hand is all we need to know, to judge how sincere Essential’s reporting of its poll really is. Because, historically in Australian referendums, undecided voters almost always end up shifting to voting no at the ballot box.
Those are the results of the latest Essential poll of 1,125 voters, which found 47% of respondents in favour of the constitutional change, 43% opposed and 10% who said they were unsure.
Which, history would suggest, will translate into a 53% vote against.
But that number is not the full story in an Australian referendum. To pass, a referendum must not only garner a simple majority across the nation, but a majority in a majority of states. That is, at least four states must vote majority Yes for the referendum to pass.
That’s becoming an increasingly slender hope for the voice.
The Essential poll found the yes vote had big leads in South Australia (49% yes to 38% no) and Victoria (48% yes and 39% no); and narrow leads in Western Australia (49% yes to 47% no) and New South Wales (45% yes to 44% no).
Queenslanders supported the no side by 50% to 42% for yes, with a further 8% unsure.
The Guardian
So, that’s a thumping defeat in Queensland, and no mention at all of Tasmania. (Newspoll has Tassie as 48% no, five points ahead of yes, at 43%.) The slender leads for yes in WA and NSW are, again, most likely to harden into at least narrow defeats. Especially in WA, which is grappling with the sudden bureaucratic onslaught of its “indigenous heritage” laws, which has seen landowners slugged with tens of thousands of dollars for “aboriginal cultural assessments”, even for a suburban block.
The desperation of the voice campaigners is beginning to show.
Prominent ‘Yes’ campaigner and Voice architect Thomas Mayo has slammed the media for publishing ‘negative headlines’ on ‘positive stories’ about the Voice to Parliament.
“Positive stories” like what?
Surely he’s not fool enough to think that his own blitherings are “positive”? Or is he just embarrassed at being caught, saying the quiet part out loud?
Mr Mayo gained attention last month when a series of resurfaced tweets from 2018 made headlines, in which he expressed the importance of repatriations, returning land, and providing fair compensation to Indigenous people.
He said the voice could pave the way to make the ‘Pay the Rent’ campaign a reality and to change the date of Australia Day.
The ‘Pay the Rent’ movement wants homeowners to voluntarily pay a percentage of their income to Aboriginal elders without any government oversight or intervention.
And if Australian homeowners refuse? Does anyone in their right mind think that a “voice” wouldn’t immediately start heavying the government of the day to make such rent-seeking law?
He also expressed interest in changing the date of Australia Day, but he has since told Daily Mail Australia he does not ‘share that particular view about Australia Day anymore’.
Daily Mail
Sure, and I’m an Aborigine, too. But then, if Mayo, whose ancestors are alleged to be mostly Filipino, can be “Aboriginal”, then I guess we all can.
