Information
Opinion
February 24th, 2022.
As expected, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has started, and reports of major casualties and civilian bloodshed are becoming apparent. As the rest of the world is looking for a response the EU and UK are putting together economic sanctions and supplying additional weaponry to Ukraine.
Putin however was lying as usual and has gone straight for Kyiv and other major cities in Ukraine, not just an incursion into the Southeast. If this continues it will only be a few days before he has “control” of Ukraine. The problem will then start with hand-to-hand fighting and fighting street by street and house by house in Kyiv and the other cities.
British TV interviewed a number of previous UK ambassadors to Moscow and all had the consensus that Putin was getting desperate to leave a legacy for Russia – in his case the “reunification” of Russia’s ancient territory of Ukraine. It isn’t, but why let history get in the way of a good story. In Putin’s latest interview yesterday, he looked anxious and stressed, with his hands resting on the desk and not moving. The ex-ambassadors went so far as to suggest that Putin has lost it and a British defence minister in an unguarded moment described Putin as having gone “full Tonto”.
The other view expressed by the ambassadors was that the Russian people did not want the invasion of the Ukraine with the under 30s being especially strong against the action. Given the almost total state control of the media in Russia it is the under 30s who are accessing the internet and getting news from there.
They went on to say that they considered Putin as being unstable with his condition having deteriorated. One view was that he may be seriously ill (or just having feelings of mortality) which is concentrating his mind on his legacy. All his close advisors are FSB associates as he has built up a trust with them over the years, with the military doing his bidding, albeit reluctantly.
In an act of supreme bravery, 150 senior officials signed a letter condemning the invasion as an unprecedented atrocity and warned of catastrophic consequences while urging Russian citizens not to cooperate or support the invasion.
In the Black Sea, a Turkish ship (a member of NATO) was struck by (stray?) fire.
Meanwhile, NATO is strengthening its presence in border states, Estonia Latvia, Lithuania etc.
I feel that Ukraine is gone but with guerrilla action continuing for the foreseeable future whilst the UK, USA and EU open up back channels with the military in Russia to keep lines of communication open, and also to provide continuous access so that both sides can avoid a slide into nuclear action. Although Putin has obliquely threatened this in his strong message to the world, his generals certainly don’t want this, least of all over Ukraine.
The general consensus is that our screens will be filled with pictures of Ukrainian casualties, whilst Russian casualties will be moved to field hospitals away from TV cameras with body bags being smuggled back in to Russia.
NATO cannot intervene directly but certainly are working through back channels. As one of the ex-ambassadors said this will only end with the collapse of Ukraine, which after the initial onslaught may drag on as guerrilla action commences, or with the departure of Putin. Hence keeping back channels open.
