Thomas Talley
Thomas Talley is a retired US Army lieutenant colonel, who served the final years of his career as a strategic plans officer.
President Trump’s Oval Office meeting with President Zelensky on February 28, 2025, was a watershed moment. Finally, the truth of what has been happening in Ukraine, and its prospects for success in its war against Russia, is being acknowledged. For many, the truth is hitting hard. That being: long before January 20, when President Donald J Trump assumed office, Ukraine had all but lost the war.
President Trump recognizes this reality. And, due to his leadership, more and more people are coming to accept this reality, albeit begrudgingly. Possessing intellectual ability and moral courage to accept reality for what it is, especially if it doesn’t reflect your preferences, is not defeatism. It’s called intellectual honesty.
Contrary to what his critics allege, President Trump’s single-minded focus on ending the war in Ukraine is neither cowardly nor foolish. It is just the opposite: it is courageous and wise to refuse to double down on a failed strategy. Even more, it is morally and strategically sound; he is resetting the geopolitical chessboard. I even dare suggest that President Trump’s approach to resolving this conflict is the most moral and strategically sound foreign policy that the United States has pursued in at least the past 20 years.
Those who refuse to accept the incontrovertible evidence about the state of events in Ukraine find themselves in a miserable state of mind. They are frustrated, angry, and ashamed. Frustrated that the war has come to this point, angry that it is ending in this manner, and ashamed at the realization of just how self-serving, insincere, hypocritical, inadequate, and immoral Western support to Ukraine has always been.
This war was always dominated by hard truths. Even though countless politicians, idealogues, and the ever-compliant mainstream media conspired to obfuscate them, they were always there, hiding in plain sight. The way the war ends comes as no surprise to any who kept the following hard truths in mind:
Hard Truth One: Western support was always insincere and hypocritical. All the countries of the West can be organized into one of three bins: unwilling and incapable, willing but incapable, and capable but unwilling. Western hypocrisy was further revealed when they imposed sanctions with loopholes big enough to drive Russian pipelines through. To this day, the West has paid more for Russian energy than it ever gave to Ukraine.
Hard Truth Two: Sanctions don’t work against a commodity superpower. Russia is one of only a few countries in the world that can actually be self-sufficient (autarkic is the technical word). Ask yourself: ‘Who suffered more from the sanctions: Russia or Germany?’
Hard Truth Three: Western support was always self-serving. For years, neocons dreamed and published fantasies about using Ukraine to weaken Russia. The West encouraged a war and then provided only enough financial and military assistance to keep the fighting going, never enough to win. ‘Whatever it takes, for as long as it takes,’ was never about helping Ukraine, it was about bleeding out Russia. Most of the money earmarked for Ukraine went to domestic arms manufacturers and, by circuitous means, to other pockets.
Hard Truth Four: Western support was always inadequate. Military assistance always followed the same tortured path: initially it was refused, then it was trickled in. The quantity was always insufficient, and the quality was always older, barely serviceable models. Many came with strict caveats limiting their use. And they came from so many different suppliers that it actually made Ukraine’s logistical challenges worse, and chances of success even more unlikely.
Hard Truth Five: Western encouragement was always deeply immoral. It is deeply immoral to suggest that Russia poses an existential threat to Europe while simultaneously funding its war effort by purchasing Russian oil and gas. It is deeply immoral to finance a conflict you have no intention of ending, fighting in, or winning. It is deeply immoral to suggest NATO membership is forthcoming when you know that it is never going to happen. It is deeply immoral to ignore the devastation, suffering, and loss of life you wreak by supporting both sides, and then blithely proclaim the entire event as the ‘best return on investment you can imagine.’ Ukraine’s Western supporters stand revealed for what they are: craven, hypocritical, war profiteers. They can measure the increase in the share price of their stock by the number of Ukrainian dead and crippled. Yes, they should be ashamed.
Hard Truth Six: Ukraine’s national leadership failed to anticipate the easily predictable. They failed to consider that their European neighbors depended on access to low-cost Russian energy. They failed to consider that their European neighbors had long since divested themselves of any real military capability. They refused to accept that NATO membership was always unattainable, particularly as it requires unanimous consent of all members, and Russia had always declared it a red line. They also failed to consider that superpowers avoid direct conflict between themselves and only fight by using proxies.
Hard Truth Seven: Ukraine is nobody’s ally. It is not a party to any mutual defense agreements. All the bilateral security agreements that Ukraine has collected are simply pledges to do for Ukraine next time exactly what they’ve done this time. None pledge ‘lives, fortunes, and sacred honor.’ Ukraine may advertise itself as the bulwark of Western defense against Russian aggression, but anyone familiar with Cold War history always knew better. Ukraine should have known that the West viewed it as both proxy and pawn. It was always going to be their fate to stand and face the peril alone.
Hard Truth Eight: Russia took note of the West’s insincerity and inadequacy and adapted its policy accordingly. Russia knew its greatest risk was direct Western involvement, but that wouldn’t happen if it limited the scope of the war and kept its battlefield gains to an almost glacially slow pace. Russia chose a strategy of attrition as much to wear down the Ukrainians as it was to diminish the sense of concern in the West. It worked.
All this preceded President Trump. And that is another hard truth.
Now that we are at the point where we can discuss the hard truths that have shaped the war to date, and people are wondering what comes next, we should take note of four more hard truths that will shape the future.
Hard Truth Nine: Ukraine is in an even worse shape than the current frontline suggests. Ukraine didn’t just lose 20 per cent of its territory: it lost the most mineral-rich region and a large portion of its industrial-skilled population. Prior to the war it was demographically old, poor, and corrupt. All those conditions have worsened. Even with economic assistance and military protection, most nations take over a decade to recover from a major war. Ukraine, with far less resources, is facing a precarious future if it fails to gain a generous and protective sponsor.
Hard Truth 10: Ukraine needs the West, but the West doesn’t need Ukraine. Without Western financial assistance, Ukraine would, and soon will, collapse. Europe is about to lose interest because they cannot afford to rebuild Ukraine. Germany is already in a recession: its economic model is no longer viable. Germany cannot afford its welfare state. To believe that it will go into massive debt for increased military expenditures and to contribute to rebuilding Ukraine is wishful thinking. As Germany goes, Europe will follow.
Hard Truth 11: Political instability and civil unrest in Ukraine is a very real possibility. Political exigency, like stripping citizens of their rights and destroying democracy, may be legitimized during wartime, but abuse and corruption aren’t so easily forgiven or forgotten. Especially when the country lies shattered. There is always a reckoning for those who abused their positions and authority during a time of crisis while profiting handsomely. Those in power are well aware of nascent unrest. The odds of them yielding power are faint. Don’t count on new elections restoring democracy, rights, and freedoms.
Hard Truth 12: Russia is more important to the world than Ukraine. A reintegrated Russia, one that once again sees its future tied to the West, its traditional orientation, makes for a much safer world as there is even less likelihood of the world partitioning into distinct spheres. That makes reintegrating Russia into the global economy both a strategic necessity and an imperative.
So, what now?
President Trump is pursuing a moral and strategically sound foreign policy. He is demonstrating the moral courage to abandon an immoral, failing strategy. He’s not offering false promises or inadequate support as the previous administration and the Europeans did. He is not ‘selling out’ Ukraine. He is trying to give Ukraine a real, tangible, financial connection to the West that will allow for rebuilding and security. Once you appreciate the last four hard truths listed above, it’s obvious that President Trump is offering Ukraine the best deal it can hope for.
My advice to Ukraine: Take the Deal.
This article was originally published by RealClearDefense and made available via RealClearWire.
