Actuaries have not unfairly been described as “people who didn’t have enough personality to be accountants”, but when it comes to crunching numbers, they’re the folks you go to. Especially if you want to analyse mortality statistics and risks.
According to the Actuaries Institute, Australia ought to greatly alarmed by a sudden spike in its death rate.
The Australian government should be urgently investigating the “incredibly high” 13 per cent excess death rate in 2022, the country’s peak actuarial body says.
An extra 15,400 people died in the first eight months of the year, according to new analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data by the Actuaries Institute.
This is no normal fluctuation or “data noise”, either.
“Mortality doesn’t normally vary by more than one to two per cent, so 13 per cent is way higher than normal levels,” [actuary Karen Cutter] said.
“I’m not aware [of anything comparable] in the recent past but I haven’t gone back and looked [historically]. They talk about the flu season of 2017 being really bad and the mortality there was 1 per cent higher than normal. So it’s well outside the range of normal.”
At which point the Covidians will no doubt bellow, “Wear your mask! Get your weekly booster! Reee!” But is Covid the culprit?
The latest mortality data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last month found that there had been 128,797 deaths from January 1 to August 31, which was 17 per cent higher than the historical average.
That equates to an extra 18,671 deaths. Of those, only 7,727 were attributed to Covid – or 41 per cent – leaving 10,944 non-Covid excess deaths.
So, not even half of the extra deaths that can even possibly be blamed on Covid. Bear in mind, of course, the generous definitions of “with” and even “of” Covid. Initially, all deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test were “Covid deaths”. The current definition is hardly less rubbery: “the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death”.
Where, then, does that leave the other 60 per cent of deaths?
According to the Actuaries Institute analysis, ischaemic heart disease was the biggest contributor to excess deaths in 2022, followed by cancer.
Deaths from respiratory disease have been significantly lower than expected throughout the pandemic – except for the short and early flu season this year – while things like cancer, diabetes, heart disease and stroke as a group have been the largest contributor to non-Covid excess deaths in 2021 and 2022.
At which point, the Covidiots will no doubt bellow, “It’s the vax! Big Pharma! Reee!” But are Covid vaccines the culprit, instead?
According to the TGA’s most recent safety report, there have been 14 deaths confirmed as likely related to Covid vaccines, out of 947 reports received and reviewed.
Ms Cutter pointed out that even if those more than 900 were confirmed to be linked to the vaccine, it would only be a fraction of the total excess deaths.
Moreover, she noted the timing of the excess deaths “doesn’t match with the vaccine rollout, and the age profile of people dying does not match with people who’ve been vaccinated”.
“Hardly any young people are dying,” she said. She also noted there was no excess mortality in Western Australia in January and they were “just as vaccinated as the rest of the country”.
“The numbers do not stack up,” she added.
That few young people are dying might be a key to the real culprit.
Ms Cutter said it was “not clear what might be driving this” but partly it may be explained by the flu all but disappearing in 2020 and 2021.
“There were less people dying from respiratory illness early on [compared with] what would have been pre-pandemic normal,” she said.
“Those people tend to be more frail and have other underlying conditions, so those people may have lived an extra year or two because they didn’t die of flu but might be dying now.
“That might be one of the things that’s going on.”
Another likely factor is one that was predicted from the early days of the pandemic panic – and studiously ignored by politicians and bureaucrats.
“One of the other important factors is we see higher non-Covid deaths when there are Covid deaths,” she said. “Part of it could be people are not getting healthcare when they need it, particularly emergency care, or there could be more undiagnosed Covid than we know about.”
All Starts Here
The dearth of timely medical care, especially routine checkups, would also be likely to disproportionately affect the elderly and chronically ill.
Whatever the cause, as the Actuaries Institute points out, there doesn’t seem to be much government interest in or action on the alarming spike in excess deaths.
Perhaps they’re waiting for that “Covid Amnesty” before admitting that anything’s wrong.
