Summarised by Centrist
The Opportunity Party has climbed close to Parliament’s 5% threshold despite spending just $4,534 on Facebook and Instagram advertising between April 12 and July 10.
Meta data shared by the X account Suit and tie shows $2,685 of that spending was directed at Auckland, followed by $521 in Canterbury and $468 in Wellington.
The low advertising total has prompted questions about how much TOP has benefited from extensive news coverage and interviews as it attempts to establish itself as a potential kingmaker.
TOP reached 4.7% in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, following a 4.6% result in a recent 1News-Verian poll. Crossing 5% would dramatically alter the composition of Parliament.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has warned left-leaning voters that supporting TOP carries two risks. The party could fail to reach the threshold, creating wasted votes, or enter Parliament and support a National-led government.
However, RNZ’s polling found TOP voters preferred a Labour-led government by 41.1% to 21.3%.
Leader Qiulae Wong said that preference would not determine the party’s negotiations. TOP intends to present itself as able to work with either major party and would initially negotiate with whichever wins the largest share of the vote.
Wong has also described the current National, ACT and NZ First coalition as her “last choice”, complicating the party’s claims of political neutrality.
Suit and tie argues TOP’s limited paid advertising suggests mainstream media coverage has performed much of the promotional work normally expected from a campaign.
Editor’s note: Centrist has previously argued that while right-leaning parties attract more financial donations, parties on the left may receive an overlooked in-kind advantage through favourable coverage and softer interviews. TOP’s rise on minimal paid advertising raises the same question: what would that media exposure be worth if the party had to buy it?
Image: The Opportunity Party
