The reaction of governments on both sides of the Tasman to the Wuhan pandemic has been near-hysterical overreaction coupled with the most bizarre wishful thinking.
Panic – and an innate taste for untrammelled power – drove the unacknowledged shift of the pandemic goalposts from “flatten the curve” to “elimination”. Bear in mind that the first strategy explicitly acknowledged that infections and deaths were unavoidable; the best that could be hoped was to spread them out so as to save the hospitals and mortuaries from being overloaded.
The second strategy, “elimination” is a completely different beast. It’s the twin Pollyanna delusions that the virus can somehow be smitten from the face of the earth by the heavy hand of government alone and that a safe and effective vaccine is imminent (and will be enthusiastically embraced in a twinkling by the population).
In the meantime, the Walter Mittys in both governments keep pretending that a “travel bubble” between our countries is miraculously open just around the corner. Any day now.
Australian and New Zealand officials are still working behind the scenes to set up a travel bubble between the two countries, but community transmission of coronavirus will have to fall to zero before the proposal takes off.
In other words, not in the foreseeable future. The outbreak in Victoria seems to be running its course and finally dropping off – barring yet another spectacular stuff-up by the Andrews government – but is still a long way from ending community transmission. In New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern will keep hitting the panic button at the first sniffle until at least the election.
New Zealand Trade Minister David Parker said Australia had been his country’s first choice for a travel bubble but the serious outbreak of COVID-19 in Victoria had put the plan on hold for now.
At that point, his country switched focus to neighbouring Pacific Island nations but the outbreak of community transmission in Auckland has put that plan on hold as well.
And so the absurd game of COVID Whack-A-Mole goes on.
But hope springs eternal.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday said Australia was still keen to establish travel arrangements with neighbouring countries but his first priority was for state borders to reopen.
“I’m trying to get the New Zealand travel bubble back in place, and I’m sure we’ll take that up again soon,” he said.
“I’d like to see that also if we can among the Pacific nations… Japan is keen to do it, Singapore is keen to do this and there are a number of nations that are happy to do this with us. I can see that as the next step, but right now we’re trying to get domestic borders open.”
And that’s one, ginormous “but”. Morrison is fighting a losing battle to get recalcitrant state leaders to prise open their borders – a battle in which premiers so far have the backing of their panicked state populations. A constitutional challenge from Clive Palmer may change that, but even that is months away.
Freight traffic is still moving well, but as the recent scare over supposed COVID transmission from a shipment of frozen vegetables shows, even that window could be slammed shut by the gibbering ninnies in charge.
Even if borders between the countries are opened up, onerous quarantine requirements will almost certainly stay in place beyond that. Which would kind of put a damper on holiday plans.
So, for the moment, it’s stay where you are, New Zealand. We’re not being let out of house arrest just yet.
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