Summarised by Centrist
Two wild birds have tested positive for H5N1 bird flu, but authorities have not established that the virus is spreading between birds inside New Zealand.
The first case involved a brown skua found unwell on Petone Beach on July 10. It was taken to Wellington Zoo, quarantined and tested.
MPI did not consider weekend testing necessary because “a single bird in quarantine is not a risk”. A spokesperson said the skua was eating and “showing signs of improvement” while awaiting its result.
Testing subsequently confirmed the presence of the virus.
The second detection involved a kāhu (swamp harrier), found near Carterton. Otago University virologist Jemma Geoghegan said the case suggested there could be an infected population or carcass acting as a source.
However, she stressed that it did not prove transmission within New Zealand. Both species scavenge, meaning the place where they were found may not be where they became infected.
“We don’t know yet,” Geoghegan said. Genomic sequencing may show whether the two cases are connected to each other or to Australian detections.
There have been no confirmed infections in commercial poultry, no reported mass mortality event and no evidence of human transmission. MPI says chicken and eggs remain safe and the risk to human health is “very low”.
The government is increasing surveillance in the Wairarapa and providing support to poultry producers.
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says New Zealand may have to “learn to live with” H5N1 because it cannot be eradicated if it becomes established. However, whether the virus is already circulating locally remains unanswered.
Editor’s note: Mainstream coverage has moved quickly from two positive tests to predictions of mass death, extinction and permanent endemicity.
Headlines and reports repeatedly describe H5N1 as “deadly” or “dreaded”, while highlighting warnings that it “could wipe out” endangered species. Overseas examples involving 90% mortality among some sea-lion populations and projected death rates of up to 100% in infected poultry have been placed prominently alongside the New Zealand detections.
Worst-case possibilities are being used to frame the story before local transmission, poultry infection or wildlife deaths have been demonstrated.
Several distinctions are being blurred. Testing positive is not the same as dying from the virus. Detecting two infected scavengers is not proof of transmission within New Zealand. Arrival is not the same as an established outbreak, and an outbreak is not necessarily permanent endemicity.
Important qualifications receive much less emphasis. The first infected bird was recovering before officials put it down, the second case still does not prove local transmission, no poultry cases have been detected and MPI considers the human risk very low.
Reports of sick or dead birds also surged after the publicity began, from four reports to 49 and then 144.
That shows heightened public vigilance, not 144 confirmed infections.
Read more over at Stuff, RNZ, 1News,and MPI
Image: Allan Hopkins
