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Well, it doesn’t look like One Nation’s meteoric rise to become the genuine opposition party is about to end any time soon. Of course, political predictions are like climate change forecasts: more likely than not to be wildly wrong, but, hey, who’ll remember next week?
Still, while the Liberals continue to wrong-foot themselves even after dumping the execrable Sussan Ley, One Nation keeps doing everything right. Not to mention scoring some unexpected windfalls.
The teal contender vying to replace Sussan Ley in her regional seat says she will not use her preferences to try to block One Nation, in a move that will boost the minor party’s chances of outpolling the Liberals and Nationals.
Farrer, Ley’s former seat, has been held by the coalition – first the Liberals, then the Nationals, then back to the Liberals – since its creation in 1917. But at the last election, a teal ‘independent’ barnstormed to 20 per cent of the primary vote. Not that that was entirely at the cost of the Liberals’ Ley: even with an eight per cent swing, with nearly 45 per cent of the vote, she still had a comfortable margin. But both the Greens and Labor also suffered significant swings.
One Nation picked up a modest swing, but were still at just six per cent of the vote. The party is yet to announce a candidate for the by-election and pollsters are yet to target the seat. While One Nation does best in regional seats, Farrer, with several large regional cities, seems to have been affected by the ‘treechange’ phenomenon, with large numbers of city dwellers moving in – the sort most likely to vote for a climate change-obsessed middle-class woman like themselves.
Michelle Milthorpe is, in fact, a typical ‘teal’: a middle-class, white, female, former teacher and professional busybody, oops, I mean, ‘activist’, obsessed with climate change.
So, it seems unlikely at present that One Nation will pick up the seat, which is probably why the teal feels safe in playing the spoiler and directing preferences to One Nation ahead of the Liberals.
Climate 200-backed candidate Michelle Milthorpe on Monday confirmed she will not direct voters to preference One Nation last at the upcoming contest, which is shaping up to be a four-cornered battle between the right-wing party, the Liberals, Nationals and the teal hopeful.
Nonetheless, the by-election is the first big test of the newly popular One Nation at the ballot box. Even a strong showing against the incumbent Liberals will be a good sign for the party.
While Pauline Hanson will look to the southwestern NSW electorate for whether her polling success can translate into real results, the contest will also hand down a verdict on the new Liberal leader Angus Taylor.
For their part, One Nation have some grounds for confidence.
One Nation considers Farrer its second-largest branch in the country and a party source said “multiple high-profile candidates in the region” had been contacted about a potential run, including another local state member, independent Murray MP Helen Dalton.
Tellingly, Labor seem set to chicken out of making it a five-way contest.
Labor is not expected to run a candidate, but has yet to make an announcement.
What are they afraid of?
