A couple of weeks back I had written an essay on the US elections saying I was being very cautious, not buying into the “red wave” stuff, and waiting for the votes to be counted before proclaiming victory. There seem to have been unfulfilled expectations and a consequent sense of disappointment at how events unfolded. I think many disappointed people are missing several points.
The most accurate pollster in America is Scotty Rasmussen; he was running a weekly “generic ballot” (i.e. asking people which party they were likely to vote for, rather than candidates in specific elections) and called it precisely with the Republicans winning by 5% or so. He also correctly called Hispanic men breaking 50/50 for the Republicans, a huge swing from previous elections.
There were of course the outstandingly successful results across the board in Florida which has gone from being (literally!) 50/50 in 2018 to being 60/40 Republican, mainly due to its huge influx of new people in recent times and the swing to the Republicans by Hispanic voters.
In California the Republicans also made significant gains; their brilliant candidate for Governor, Brian Dahle, united the party and saw them win Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties (basically suburban Los Angeles) after several simply shocking elections in recent years in these traditional Republican heartlands. Funnily enough, if you look at a map of California it’s red county after red county; it’s just unfortunate there aren’t enough people living in these places to overcome the Bay area support for the Democrats.
New York was a similar story; a popular candidate for Governor who united the party, flipped numerous counties, flipped four House of Representatives seats; after 16 years of shocking election results New York is now a bit more competitive. It’s red county after red county except in New York City itself.
The Senate disappointed many people, but let’s take a look at it; there were several elections which were basically 50/50. Somebody has to win, somebody lose, in that situation; the Democrats won Pennsylvania but Republicans held all their other seats and may well gain a seat in Georgia. In Nevada the Democrats in Vegas may or may not have waited until they knew how many votes were required to win and – by a truly amazing coincidence – found precisely that number of ballots in lampshades and boots of cars, and under the floorboards.
I think the Senate result was probably for the best; a lot of people who expected to be committee chairmen got the shock of their lives and may now realise which side their bread is buttered on; may stop being weak and bipartisan, constantly sucking up to Democrats. Frankly, it serves them right!
The problem for the Democrats is that this is as good as it gets; they cannot get above 50/50 in the Senate, they cannot win the House of Representatives, their support is receding in coastal strongholds and they are no longer a contender in vast swathes of the country.
There are 26 states where a Democrat cannot win a statewide election, which continues to cement a trend going back a decade. It is they, not the Republicans, who should be concerned about long-term trends. Overall, freedom lovers and Republicans should be pleased with what happened: Biden and the insane left-wing agenda is dead in the water (the loony stuff won’t even be brought to a vote in the House), and the Republic is saved. A good result.
