Is Australia on the verge of dodging a very nasty bullet? It looks like it, but campaigners for the No case in the Indigenous Voice referendum are warning against complacency as opinion polls continue to plummet.
For the first time, support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen below 50 per cent in every state. This indicates that the referendum is headed for defeat on both requirements under Australian law: majority nationwide support, and majorities in a majority of states.
But No campaigners are warning against resting on their laurels, as the Yes case continues to attract the lion’s share of funding and elite support. The No campaign also suspects that some 20-30% will remain undecided until voting begins (although history shows that Undecided almost invariably turns into No, in referendums).
An exclusive Newspoll demographic analysis shows the yes case so far failing to secure an absolute majority in any state.
While the race was still close, the referendum based on current attitudes would fail to meet both requirements of a referendum.
The Australian
Other polls are even more dire.
A new RedBridge survey found the No campaign with a huge 56-44 lead over the Yes side, a 12-point lead that makes the Yes case ‘almost unsalvageable’ […]
Even in Victoria, which had been seen as an easy victory for the Yes side, the No side is ahead 55-45. In NSW, No leads by 56-44, and in Queensland the lead is 63-37.
The government and its Yes lackeys are blaming “confusion” and “misinformation” for the slide in support. In fact, the RedBridge polling suggests that the more informed they are, the less likely Australians are to vote Yes.
Not everybody has yet read the information provided by the Yes and No sides, but of those who have the No vote is even higher, at 59 to 41.
After informing themselves of the arguments for and against, 25 per cent of people who said they were previously leaning towards voting Yes switched sides to No.
MSN
The polls are also heavily split between the indoctrinated and the experienced; those with the most skin in the game and those with the least.
Those most likely to support the voice were higher-income earners, the university educated, renters and the young.
Those firmly opposed include voters with no tertiary education, retirees, mortgagors and people who owned their home outright.
The Australian
No doubt weighing on many voters’ minds, too, is the chaos in Western Australia caused by its Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act. The new law has resulted in tree-planting ceremonies cancelled because “Aboriginal cultural assessments” weren’t paid for (at tens of thousands a pop), and an unedifying on-air fight between two Aborigines demanding the right to conduct a (highly paid) “smoking ceremony” at a highway opening. Owners of land plots only slightly bigger than a suburban block are being slugged with tens of thousands of dollars in fees to Aboriginal groups, for “cultural assessments”.
For all that, though, Aboriginal groups complained that the laws haven’t gone far enough.
No wonder the WA state Labor government is panicking and backtracking. Premier Roger Cook is to outline major changes to the policy.
Which will almost certainly be pounced on by the No campaign. After all, bad legislation can be amended or repealed. An equally bad Constitutional change is something you’re stuck with, barring yet another referendum.
The “forever” nature of Anthony Albanese’s constitutionally enshrined voice to parliament has been put up in lights by the West Australian retreat over introduction of Indigenous cultural heritage laws.
This is the obvious point: there can be no backdown over a voice to parliament that has been cemented into the Constitution.
If the voice proves unpopular, something goes wrong with the advisory body or there are unintended consequences, the entity cannot be scrapped.
The Australian
So, far, though, the PM is resisting growing calls from his own side to call off the referendum (which he can still do until a voting date is announced). Which is good news, really: if this disastrous, racially separatist referendum is voted down, that should put it to bed for a good, long while.
If Albanese chickens out now, though, you can be sure the bastards will try it on again in a few years. That’s always the way of the left: just keep stamping their feet and holding their breath until the grown-ups give in to them.
