As they did with Tony Abbott, the left are fast finding out that they underestimated Peter Dutton at their peril. In doing so, coupled with an endless litany of unforced errors, the Albanese government is staring down the barrel of minority government, if not becoming just the second one-term federal government in Australia’s history. As I noted recently, even the dyed-in-the-wool lefties at Pravda-on-the-Yarra, The Age, are starting to panic.
When Tony Abbott became coalition leader, shortly after a landslide defeat to Kevin Rudd’s Labor, he was dismissed as an unelectable laughing stock by the chattering left. Yet, by the next election, Abbott took the coalition to within a whisker of taking back the government. At the next, he became one of just four coalition leaders in Australian history to win government from opposition.
There is a growing likelihood that Dutton may be the next.
The latest polling is showing Labor is, at best, treading water and on key issues going backwards as Coalition support rises and Dutton closes on Albanese as preferred prime minister.
Unlike too many coalition leaders, at state and federal level, Dutton has realised (like Abbott) that an opposition is meant to be just that. Voters don’t want a wet, weak bunch of lefties in blue ties, feebly whining, ‘Us, too!’ Abbott grasped the nettle and dared to say what the chattering left deemed unsayable: stop the boats, end the carbon tax and cut the ‘catastrophic global warming’ crap. To the horror of the left and coalition ‘moderates’, it was a winning formula.
Dutton is also daring to smash through the Overton window: opposing the Voice referendum, supporting nuclear energy, and, most critically, vigorously condemning anti-Semitism and opposing the suicidal idiocy of flooding Australia with thousands of Hamas supporters.
When Dutton called for an end to bringing in people from Gaza without the full security checks in a third country and involving ASIO, face-to-face interviews and biometric data for identity, as was the case in Syria and Afghanistan, Albanese accused him of sowing division and declared ASIO was involved in security checks.
Dutton struck last week in parliament and exposed Albanese for misquoting the ASIO chief, as he made it clear ASIO was not involved in every tourist visa check, some of which were issued online within an hour.
The chattering left clutched their pearls in horror, but, once again, Dutton was on the money.
Evidence is emerging that, once again, the public mood is shifting in Dutton’s favour and that Albanese is, once again, making an error in judging the public mood, not answering reasonable concerns and being beaten by Dutton […]
Significantly, the latest Freshwater Strategy poll shows that since the Gaza visa debate began not only has Dutton closed on Albanese as leader but Labor’s support on the issues of national security and immigration and asylum has fallen markedly.
It’s all proving to be a re-run of Anthony Albanese’s disastrous (for Labor) miscalculation and pigheaded refusal to face political reality around the Voice referendum.
After starting a referendum debate on the back of majority sympathy, progressive support, indigenous leaders’ campaigning, corporate backing, academic urging and a lack of public consultation, Albanese’s response to Peter Dutton’s decision to oppose the voice was to accuse him of negativity, division, lowering public standards and threatening our relations with regional neighbours as he allowed others to accuse the Opposition Leader of racism.
Albanese accused people opposing the referendum of being “chicken Littles”.
Dutton’s response was to ask reasonable questions, seek facts and information, encourage indigenous leaders who did not support the voice and warn people that there would be unintended consequences for giving an indigenous voice body the power to intervene in government decision-making.
Public opinion flipped, Albanese was accused of misleading the public about the extent of the voice and his commitment to truth-telling, as well as using insults instead of providing factual argument.
Dutton got the national mood and the politics right while Albanese has suffered ever since for the misjudgment.
Polls are suggesting that an election today would result in a hung parliament. Labor’s best hope is hanging on to minority government. But it’s a long time to the next election and it’s been clear that, ever since the referendum, voters have simply stopped listening to Albanese and his party. The next election is fast shaping up as Dutton’s to lose.
In which case, he needs to be careful not to repeat Abbott’s fatal mistake of winning the electoral battle but losing the war in government.
