The BFD | What Do the COVID-19 Numbers Really Say?

At the beginning of March, our government would have been very wise to take serious steps in sealing our border. They did not do so despite the recently repeated slogans from our “slogan princess” Jacinda Ardern about going in early and hard, and the result is an economy in tatters, a population emotionally fraying around the edges and a level of insecurity not seen since the great depression of the 1930’s – 90 years ago.

I have absolutely no fear of the COVID-19 virus, not because I’m fearless and not because I’m stupid. I have listened carefully to the “experts” and drawn some simple conclusions that include keeping a safe distance from others and washing my hands regularly. It’s not that hard to achieve and I figure that if I still get it and it “takes me out,” then my time has come and that’s life. It’s been a good life and while I have no wish for it to end, I know that one day, that is exactly the outcome I’ll face along with every other person on this planet.

When I do go, I don’t want to be in any way responsible for my children or grandchildren (or you or yours for that matter), having to live a tough, depression-like existence because some hastily convened committee of well meaning, ill advised fools thought that bringing the nation to its knees to save my life was in any way a useful project.

The way information is collected and distributed is of little use. We’re told how many confirmed cases we have. We can’t be told how many cases there might be that are not confirmed because they have no idea. Indeed, even what we are being told is completely skewed by the complete lack of scientific process which is why the management looks and feels like some computer game with all manner of unpredictable variables and equally unpredictable outcomes.

This is not about minimising the effects of this virus. It is serious and dangerous and nobody is exempt from possible death. There are many things we still don’t know about it. Some of the things we do know and which seem to be supported by scientific facts and figures are that it does seem to attack some young, healthy victims but they are a small minority. It does its worst to the old, the weak and the unhealthy.

So put them (us) in a safe lockdown and take care of them (us) as well as you can but leave the rest of the population to live on. Cautiously of course. With proper hygiene and sanitisation of hands, safe distancing, face masks where necessary, stay at home if unwell. Basic common sense. But police roadblocks and patrols to keep people at home? That’s not New Zealand the way any of us want it.

And for what? Health.com reports:

“Globally, the World Health Organization estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year”.

The Johns Hopkins Coronavirus map of the world as at Monday afternoon records world wide infections at 1,848,503, deaths at 114,185 and recovered at 423,554.

The number of recorded infections is just that. Those are people who have turned up for testing and have tested positive. It is very highly probable that many more have it or have had it, or have recovered and carried on where they left off. We simply don’t know.

The deaths are not necessarily all caused by COVID-19 either. What the figures really are is impossible to calculate because the records are all over the place and each country seems to be doing its own thing.

At this stage, with the numbers we do have, we are some 500,000 or so deaths short of the top end of the WHO annual estimates.

COVID-19 on this basis is looking pretty average for the amount of chaos it’s causing – which will be felt for a long time to come.

It’s time perhaps for level heads to bring the management under control and flatten the anxiety curve on the graph as well.