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As I’ve written several times, the next five years or so will be the most perilous juncture in world history since the late 1930s. That’s because, at 72, Xi Jinping is fast running out of time to realise his grand dream of adding Taiwan to China’s list of possessions. Recent events in China suggest that something dangerous is afoot.
In particular, in recent days, a dramatic escalation in Xi’s purge of the People’s Liberation Army. In October, nine top generals were expelled. Now, one of the biggest heads in China is rolling.
China’s defence ministry says it has opened an investigation into the country’s highest-ranking general over “grave violations of discipline and the law”.
This is a standard CCP euphemism for corruption – a common allegation used to purge officials. General Zhang Youxia was previously seen as Xi’s closest military ally and also sits on the Politburo. The son of a founding general of the Chinese Communist Party, he is one of only a few senior leaders with combat experience.
This may be why some reports suggest that Zhang was part of a faction opposing a potential invasion of Taiwan, which, according to Steve Tsang, the director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, removes a potential handbrake on Xi’s ambitions. “Xi will not order an invasion unless he is certain of victory, but no general will now dare to advise caution,” says Tsang.
Elsewhere in China, the CCP is cracking down even harder than ever on its citizens’ movements, in particular, severely restricting overseas travel. In a sweeping move, officials and those working in state organisations are being ordered to hand in their passports for ‘safekeeping’. New passport applications are being refused.
In July, Radio Free Asia reported that the authorities were stepping up travel restrictions on teachers, schoolchildren and state-owned bank staff ahead of summer vacation by requiring them to hand over their passports or ask permission before leaving the country.
A recent report in the Financial Times also quoted teachers as saying they were being told to hand in their passports.
It appears the CCP is afraid that many who may be allowed to leave the country will not return. Those who do are facing increasing scrutiny.
Arriving air passengers in the southern city of Guangzhou told Radio Free Asia in May 2022 that border police had stepped up controls on incoming Chinese citizens, questioning them about their overseas activities and confiscating their passports […]
The Chinese Communist Party’s 99 million members are barred from obtaining foreign nationality or permanent residency in another country, and from applying for private passports without prior approval, according to a post on the official website of its Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
They must also submit details of their proposed itinerary when taking private trips, and not deviate from the agreed route or engage in unauthorized activities, it said.
Some of the motive for the travel ban may be economic. As reported recently in The Good Oil, more and more economists are concluding that the Chinese economy is in far worse shape than Beijing is letting on.
“When people leave China, so does their money,” [‘Liu’, the wife of a high-ranking executive in a state-owned enterprise] said.
And so do their secrets.
“Particularly those who work in government departments, who know more of the details about the Chinese Communist Party’s internal operations,” Liu said. “They strictly prohibit people from disclosing that kind of detail abroad.”
All of which suggests that the communist giant is not near as confident as it wants the world to believe.
And when dictators feel their confidence slipping, it’s a perilous time.
