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Winston will stay where he is and not jump to the left. You might think its gone off track to concentrate on the Labour Party but my purpose is to highlight the policy differences between NZ First and Labour which will contribute to the decision Winston makes.
I note on Backchat and elsewhere there are some still not trusting Winston not to veer left post election and put the left block of chaos and mayhem into power. Despite his categorical statements that he will not do so, a level of distrust persists. This is perfectly understandable given the man’s history but I do not subscribe to it. I agree it is hard to forgive him for his horrendous betrayal of the right in 2017 by giving power to the Morrinsville fish and chips wrapper. The country paid a heavy price for that but so did he.
Where Winston gets into trouble is that these decisions are made on a personal level, taking into account past events that caused him grief. This, among a host of other reasons, is exactly why he will not touch Labour with a barge pole. Winston will never be 100 per cent happy whichever side he is on but, as of now, the right presents the lesser of two evils. In 2017 he could not go with National because its leader was Bill English, the man who had ensured his eviction from the party in the 1990s.
Grievances such as this live long with Winston. He is the ‘elephant who never forgets’. He will certainly not have forgotten 2017. I’m not sure if he thought Ardern could be easily manipulated but he soon found out that was not the case. She manipulated him with a mixture of deceit, hiding documents and, as much as possible, ensuring that NZ First was kept out of the loop. Just recently TV1 News had the memorable photo of Shane Jones standing beside Ardern, his head in his hands, not believing what he was hearing, as the ignoramus announced her first major move in her intended destruction of the country: the oil and gas exploration ban.
That idiotic decision was hers alone, a captain’s call, effectively taking the ship (the country) down with her. This brings me to the next reason Peters will not move left. The good work being done by Jones, particularly in the energy sector, which will help regain the prosperity of the regions, would all be undone. Once more he would have his head in his hands as Hipkins, or some other clown, would reinstate the oil and gas ban. Mining would also be banned. The work Jones is now doing has the backing of the coalition as a whole. With Labour and the Greens in lockstep on most policies, not to mention the Māori Party, NZ First would be effectively locked out.
Stuart Nash has now formally joined NZ First and I don’t think his comment of some years ago, that “being in politics meant being in the Labour Party”, applies now. In fact I’m sure he hasn’t joined the party only to find himself back with Labour. Like Winston, Nash was also treated shabbily by his old party and he has mostly positioned himself on the right of Labour in policy making and decisions. Alfred Ngaro, another to join recently, would be in the same boat. If you think about it, most NZ First supporters are of mature years and are from the right of the political spectrum.
Winston will be looking at Labour now. He will have noted the comment from Barbara Edmonds that “Every week I have to stand up in the House and ask a duck-faced horse – did I get that right – every single week, and I have the glory of being able to question her or debate her in debates and to talk through media.” Edmonds’ excuse for her foul outburst was that she had “got the question muddled”. The mind boggles then as to what she might get muddled as minister of finance. Hipkins said she got it wrong. No she didn’t…It was part of their formal media training and what she actually got wrong was apologising for the despicable comment.
I suggest she has destroyed any glory (whatever it was) and in future would be well advised to remain in her well-upholstered green leather seat and to take heed of the classic strategy for success: ‘keep your eyes open and your mouth shut’. Next up Greg O’Connor calls Ardern a great leader. I doubt Winston agrees with that. O’Connor thinks better senior staff are needed to allow ministers to lead. Two ministers who failed to lead, or if they did it was in the wrong direction, namely Megan Woods and Ginny Andersen, disagree.
Then there’s Camilla Belich (anyone heard of her?). Camilla is a list MP based in Epsom and is currently the party’s justice spokesperson. She doubts the party will keep the three strikes law. The irony is, if you go to her bio on the Labour Party website, the first thing you read is Camilla saying “I want to build a fairer, kinder, more equal New Zealand for our children and grandchildren.” How is she going to do that in a party that supports a certain race having rights none of the rest of us have?
Ginny Andersen, the Labour spokesperson on education, doesn’t like the back to basics approach Erica Stanford is taking. Whatever reasons she gives, her opposition will largely be directed by her party’s paymasters: the Teachers’ Unions. Labour will no doubt repeal the action the government is taking on the removal of Treaty clauses from legislation where they are not required. This is obvious because Hipkins won’t release any policy until the party knows what effect it might have on treaty obligations. He thinks Aucklanders are over his Covid restrictions and have moved on. He thinks we “don’t care” what’s in the details of his Future Fund policy.
Looking at all of this nonsense, Winston will be saying to himself ‘no thank you’. He won’t risk being booted out of parliament a second time for the same misdemeanour. But, more importantly, the policy differences are as wide as the Grand Canyon. His rising poll numbers would vanish. He will not work with the Greens again and most certainly would never entertain working with the Māori Party. The only way he can continue to make gains is by staying with the present coalition. Therefore my bet is the coalition will be re-elected and Winston will play a part.
