Who Knew Mike Munro Had a Crystal Ball?

I purchase one paper regularly each Saturday – the Weekend Herald. I wouldn’t give you tuppence for the daily edition. It could more correctly be called the Herald Advertiser. The Weekend Herald, while not short of advertising, is a more substantial paper. Opinion writers, particularly those with a left bent, often provide fodder for an article on the BFD. So it was last weekend.

Reading Mike Munro’s article and watching subsequent events, one could be forgiven for thinking he possessed a crystal ball. Mike’s article was headed Last minute stumbles on the sprint to election day. The first thing to point out is Mike believes the polls, at least the One News-Verian poll. I don’t. There is no way, with the vast majority of the public thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction, that the polls can be as close as they are.

Mike asked, with the polls so close, what a game changer might look like. He suggested perhaps an act of campaigning genius, a monumental blunder or a rip-snorter scandal. It only took until Sunday night for his second suggestion to come true. A car crash involving a Cabinet Minister, the Minister of Justice no less.

Not only did she crash her taxpayer-funded vehicle, she failed a breath test and then didn’t like the idea of accompanying a police officer to the station. I note the wording of her misdemeanours has been softened to no doubt give the perception the whole sorry incident is somehow less than we believe. It isn’t, of course.

Mike, because he deludes himself by accepting the poll results, said Labour, despite a string of ministerial misdeeds and poor performance, is continuing to defy gravity and stay in the race. Well, if the race were a steeplechase, Labour, after nearly six long years, has yet to jump the first fence never mind deliver a win. Labour is not so much defying gravity as defying belief.

Mike, from his comments, appears to be pinning his hopes on gaffes, Luxon’s gaffes, in the Leaders’ Debates. He compared him to Hipkins’s fleet-footedness ( he’s talking about the man who couldn’t name his Customs Minister when asked), which will be jangling nerves in the National leader’s camp. I hardly think so. The gaffes are all emanating from Ministers in Cabinet. The Leaders’ Debates will feature a man with real-world business experience against a political ideologue.

On all the main issues that are of concern to voters, the two leaders will be giving very different answers. National and Labour are offering different policies on education, health, ownership of water, housing, transport, welfare, inflation and the cost of living. I am of the opinion that the swing voter will identify more with what National is offering. Labour’s gaffes won’t help their cause. It’s becoming all too obvious that there is no one in government capable of paddling the waka.

So if Mike Munro does have a crystal ball it should be telling him that the word from commentators on the left – Josie Pagani, Tova O’Brien and others – is that the election is pretty much done and dusted. Kiri Allan’s car crash simply emulated the government she was a Minister in. As Trish Sherson said on ZB’s The Huddle, “The wheels have come off the government vehicle and now the spare tyre has fallen off the back.”

Mike concluded by saying, “In this high pressure contest nobody wants to be the bungler who sparks a moment that potentially allows their opponents to pull away. But don’t bet on it not happening.”

Correct Mike. It happened Sunday night courtesy of Kiri Allan. An election car crash.