Today I am going to do the opposite of what the media are doing and NOT focus on the National party leadership. It makes no sense to me that, in a time of the worst protests this country has seen since 1981, the government’s propaganda arm is more focused on the leadership of the opposition than the leadership of the government. We all know why the bought-and-paid-for shills do this of course… because they are bought and paid for. However much they ignore it though, there must be some serious rumblings at the top echelons of the Labour Government at the moment.
Labour’s polling is on a slide. Ardern has lost the public and everyone knows it. Sure, the election is still two years away but once a politician’s star has fallen, it is almost impossible to get it back. From putting the whole country into lockdown over one case, delightedly rubbing her hands and smirking at the prospect of a society that marginalises some of its own citizens, to hiding reports from the public because they wouldn’t understand them (oh, we understand, Jacinda, and Winston would most certainly have understood) she has lost the public.
Add to that how she hides from tough questions and calls off press conferences because a single heckler is asking hard questions; not to mention that ridiculous charade of her visit to Auckland last week. Ardern is in trouble.
We all know it, with the possible exception of Ardern herself, and we also know that, before too long, Labour is going to have to do something about it.
But what are they going to do? Here is my prediction, based on the musings of a government insider (on the outer parts of the inside), who has been hearing rumblings of a leadership change for a couple of weeks now.
We all know Jacinda is extremely weak and nervy. Apparently, at the moment, her anxiety attacks are off the radar and her tantrums become bigger by the day. Sure, she has had a tough few months, but a lot of that is because of her extremely poor handling of the Delta outbreak. Her ‘short, sharp’ lockdown is in its 13th week. Basically, we all blame Jacinda for the bad choices that the government has made.
Unfortunately, that goes with the territory of being the prime minister. But it is impossible for current ministers and their advisers to have not noticed that the protests going on around the country are not just about lockdowns and vaccines. Other placards are out there too, objecting to 3 Waters, He Puapua and other government policies, along with serious concerns about the lack of freedom.
Jacinda has been the architect of this. The public associates her with all of these things. So, to get their polling back on track, Jacinda has to go.
Who will replace her? It can only be Grant Robertson. First, he has long wanted to be prime minister, but secondly, he is a much more moderate politician. He could sweep in and tear up He Puapua, have a cabinet reshuffle and demote Nanaia Mahuta and drop Three Waters like a hot brick. He could then roll back the vaccine mandates, or at least soften them considerably, offer alternative vaccines and treatments (which the government has mostly ignored up to now), introduce saliva testing or rapid antigen testing, and, hey presto! Most of those concerns and protests that are damaging Labour’s polling at the moment would be gone in one fell swoop.
Could jolly old Grant do this to his beloved Jacinda? Just remember who handed two dead fish to David Shearer in parliament.
An immediate U-turn might put Labour’s polling back on track. A new leader would not be tainted by the worst aspects of the Ardern premiership, particularly as he has only been the money man. The rumours also say that Hipkins will be his deputy. Hipkins is, at least, one of the better performing ministers in the current government, although as we all know, that is not saying much.
And what about National in all this? The problem is that National is still polling poorly. They are inching up but at this stage, Labour can rescue itself and still have a reasonable chance at the next election. I am given to understand that National has a lot of policy lined up, but it is too soon to announce any of it yet. National has a lot of ground to make up before it can be seriously considered as a government-in-waiting, but maybe some of its proposed policies will help it get across the line.
Who knows. One thing is for sure: if a week is a long time in politics, then two years is an absolute eternity. Still, I think Jacinda is done for. She has been outed as the communist leader that we should have known she was. Can Grant stem the tide? I cannot answer that, but one thing I am absolutely sure of is that he will give it a damned good try… and he won’t care who he has to stab in the back to do it.
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