Will the Odds Remain Ever in His Favour?

Will losing the Commonwealth Games be Dictator Dan’s last hurrah?

In a recent chat on Reality Check Radio, Cam raised the future prospects of Victorian premier, Dan Andrew. I pointed out that his last election victory was far from as emphatic as most think. Much of the heavy swing against Andrews was dissipated amongst a host of minor parties and independents, reflecting the disenchantment of conservative voters with the so-called “conservative” establishment. As for Andrews, I drew comparisons with Jeff Kennett, who hubristically ignored an even smaller swing — and, three years later, was thrown out on his ear.

By some dark magic, Andrews has shrugged off a concatenation of scandals, any of which would damn a lesser political operator to oblivion.

Can he weather the shock of losing the Games?

The Victorian Commonwealth Games have been cancelled due to unforeseen exorbitant costs in excess of $6bn, Daniel Andrews has announced.

The state premier on Tuesday said the projected $2 billion cost for the regional-based Games had escalated to as much as $7 billion, which he said would not benefit of Victorian communities.

Or is the real story that it will not benefit his re-election chances?

A curious feature of Andrews’ Games bid was that so many events were not being held in Melbourne.

The Games were planned to be spread across Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat, Gippsland and Shepparton in March 2026, and were criticised for not being centred around the city. Local mayors had objected to the infrastructure required to host the Games in the regional centres.

The Australian

For instance, Bendigo would have been forced to build a temporary velodrome — when an international-standard velodrome exists right in the heart of Melbourne. The cost blowout comes down almost entirely to the decision to host the Games in regional areas — something event industry officials had repeatedly warned the Victorian government about, to no avail.

“The Victorian government wouldn’t be told,” they said. “With the Games being hosted in so many different regional places, the cost was going to be five times the amount [of it being hosted solely in Melbourne]” […]

“Event industry professionals always had eyebrows raised about why you would leave so many world-class venues empty,” a source said. “They had all the infrastructure in and around Melbourne…”

So, what was the point? Looking at a map of the last Victorian election results, the reasons become abundantly clear. While Andrews won easily in Melbourne and its outer suburbs, the regions were almost uniformly a wipeout, with the Nationals the big winners in the regions. The Games were a cynical exercise in pork-barrelling.

“It was done to get votes for the election in regional Victoria, and so now, the actual cancelling is a smart political move, no one is fussed … but the sports will care…”

The Australian

But, is it such a smart political move? Of course, die-hard IStandWithDan types are swallowing, hook, line and sinker, Andrews’ line that he refused to, “take money out of hospitals and schools in order to fund an event that is three times the cost estimated and budgeted for last year”. But Victorians, sports-mad as they are, may not see it that way. They may also remember that this is the premier whose first act in government was to spend over a billion dollars not to build a much-needed freeway. The same premier who promised, on camera, to spend $1.3 billion on 4000 new ICU beds — which never happened. A premier who is spending a staggering $125 billion on a suburban rail loop for Melbourne.

It’s also a potentially fatal sign of weakness from a dictatorial premier. Even the normally pro-Andrews The Age dubbed the Games cancellation a “gold medal satire” and gave its headline quote to opposition leader John Pesutto, not Andrews.

The Age compared hosting the Games in Melbourne to hosting them in India or Jamaica: “where large number of people live in poverty”. But, The Age pointed out, both India and Jamaica were able to deliver the Games.

Within the space of 18 months, a debt-burned state signed on to host the Commonwealth Games, promising a “Games like no other”, before discovering it was a little out of our price range.

The Age

The effects of the shock decision are being felt clear across the Tasman.

New Zealand Olympic Committee chief Nicki Nicol says the “unexpected announcement” for Victoria to pull out of hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games is “unsettling” for the country’s athletes.

“We are incredibly disappointed to learn that Victoria has withdrawn from hosting the 2026 Commonwealth Games,” she said.

“This unexpected announcement is unsettling for New Zealand Team athletes who were working towards a Games close to home in just under three years time.”

The Australian

Here’s an opportunity for Chippy: jump in and gazump the Australians. You’ve got to beat us at something besides Rugby Union, after all.