Allow me to preface this contribution with the following statement: If I were asked to express a preference between a National/ACT coalition or a National/ACT/NZF coalition then it would be the former.
This week Luxon declared his position, which was if Winston is needed he will pick up the phone. A couple of scenarios emanate from this statement. The first is, that depending on the size of the National/ACT majority, Winston might come in for consideration anyway. Winston could well be used as a form of insurance policy to ensure that policies get passed with good majorities.
Heather du Plessis-Allan made this point recently. If it’s a small majority, Heather thought 65 seats or less, Winston might be included to boost the numbers. She did make the point that her preference was for Winston to be nowhere near. I tend to agree with her that this type of accommodation is not beyond the bounds of possibility. I don’t think that scenario will come to pass because, in my opinion, and ignoring the polls, a landslide is in the offing.
The second scenario sees Winston in Parliament but not needed. This introduces the question of whether it is better to have Winston inside the tent rather than sniping from the cross benches. I personally think he would be better inside. As I have said before I would give him Minister of Foreign Affairs, a job he has done well in the past. This would also ensure that he was out of the country for a reasonable amount of time. He would certainly do a far better job than the incumbent who has appeared for some time reluctant to engage with her posterior, i.e get off her backside.
All of the above no doubt does nothing to change the minds of those who don’t want a bar of Winston largely because they don’t trust him. The fact is whoever wins has to work with the cards they have been dealt by the voters. The bottom line for me, and no doubt many others, is to see the current shambles well and truly eliminated. The most effective way to achieve this is to vote either National or ACT. The likelihood is that won’t happen and once again Winston may come into play.
Knowing Winston’s past, there is every reason to be sceptical. However, I think there is also reason for a degree of optimism. Winston, for the first time ever, has declared his hand in terms of who he will or won’t go with. This is telling as it shows his absolute disgust with Labour. This election he has much in common with both National and ACT, though not necessarily on the same policies.
I was within hearing of the Young Leaders Debate earlier this week. While not giving it my undivided attention there was one candidate who stood out to me and that was the young man representing NZ First. He spoke the most commonsense. He could have been representing the National party. If what he was articulating on the topics discussed is the view of the party then there is hope for a relatively stable coalition.
In terms of the damage Labour has done to the country, all three parties are in agreement. National and NZ First have similar party slogans. There will be differences in how to get to the same end but the three are in sync with what the objectives are. Winston is inherently a conservative and we all know the specious reasons why he has gone with Labour in the past.
All three are intent on getting the country out of the mess it is in. I am of the opinion though, that in order to make this triumvirate work, we need a strong National party. Whatever the outcome, National will be the lead player and we need to ensure they have the numbers to make the coalition successful. How we cast our votes in this election will depend on the hand Luxon is dealt. We need to ensure he’s given the best possible opportunity to get his policies through.
The proof of the pudding will of course be in the eating. Whether it’s an entree and a main (ACT and National) or with a side dish added (NZ First), it must not be one that ends up being half-baked. We need a coalition that will bake in policies resulting in a rise in our productivity and well-being rather than a devious cooking of the books.
Feel free to disagree!
