Will Winston Support (Or Give Us) the Blues

While I personally am not yet convinced, it does seem increasingly likely that Winston and New Zealand First could well be a part of the next government. While that gives me cause for some trepidation it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that there are gains to be had from it. If National need one thing it’s someone who will get them to go where their wokeness won’t allow them. A certain portion of the population regard National as weak or ‘labour-lite’. This I understand, although I’m not sure National, as a party, does.

We are told, and I’m not one to disagree, that this is perhaps the most important election in our lifetime. The damage Labour has inflicted on the country in just six years is horrendous. They have shown a blind adherence to their ideology which has resulted in big government which in turn has led to an inability to get things done. The commitment to that doctrine means there is an inextricable link between the thinking and the behaviour of this government.

I believe New Zealand First support is coming from, on the left, those moderates who have abandoned Labour and don’t wish to vote National or ACT and, on the right, those who are wary of National’s commitment to do what they say they will or who find ACT too far right or libertarian for their liking. That’s before we get to the so-called ‘anti-vaxxers’ / freedom community. So there is plenty of fertile ground on which Winston can campaign. It’s on that basis that he is odds on to be in the makeup of the next government.

Interestingly enough, Steven Joyce, in a recent article, still doesn’t trust Winston not to go with Labour. Unless my instincts are letting me down I don’t think that will happen this time. Labour’s hiding of the He Puapua document from him was a big mistake. On matters I like that Winston is principled and he bears grudges: for a lengthy period, as National are only too well aware. The left-wing media are lapping up the scenario, trying to fill us all with dread while completely ignoring the grouping of economic savages across the parliamentary aisle.

Will it be a Coalition of Chaos?  I don’t think so. There appears to be common ground in most major areas including the economy, health, education, co-governance and welfare. There are other areas where National MPs could benefit from pressure being applied to their posteriors from New Zealand First or ACT to go where they would otherwise fear to tread. That would be a good thing. Again, the media are highlighting mischievously the Peters/Seymour relationship, but it is my view that, if needs must, they will find a way to work together. Seymour has already said so.

The other point to remember is that Luxon comes from a business background. Like Sir John Key, he is not a career politician. While running a government is not exactly like running a business, there are similar basic skills that can be applied if you possess them. Luxon does, Hipkins doesn’t. Utilising these skills is how Luxon knocked National into shape. They will be vital when coalition negotiations take place. I’m picking Winston won’t exactly have it all his own way as was the case with Ardern.

I think Luxon will want the negotiations wrapped up quickly. If he senses it’s not going to work or that the problems are insurmountable then it will be back to the polls. Luxon might come across as a bit wokish and lacking in strength but he’ll be a man on a mission wanting to get things done. If he sees Winston as too much of a hindrance in that regard then I suspect he will call another election.

One thing you can say about Luxon and Willis in this campaign, particularly in regard to their tax policy, rightly or wrongly they have consistently appeared confident and stuck to their guns. I believe this is how Luxon will operate as a Prime Minister. He will be business-like in everything he does and will not be easily swayed. He will not be driven by ideology but by what, economically, is in the best interests of the country.

Winston will need to recognise and be cognisant of this when he sits down to negotiate. Hipkins’s nonsense talk of how Winston will run rings around Luxon shows how little he understands how a businessman operates. Luxon, in that sense, is a far cry from Ardern. Luxon might have worked at McDonald’s in his early years while Ardern was struggling to learn how to wrap fish and chips but there the similarity ends. That is something of which I’m sure Winston is aware.

One thing is for certain, there are interesting times ahead.