This is edition 2025/140 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. Labour could drop to just 15 electorate MPs
David Farrar
- 🏛️ Labour's Potential Losses: Labour could lose seats under the new boundaries, going from 18 to an estimated 15 seats.
- 🗳️ Seat Changes: Various electorates will shift, with some seats flipping to National, like the newly renamed Henderson (formerly Te Atatu).
- 🔴 Wigram's Flip: Wigram is now on paper a National seat, making it harder for Labour's Megan Woods to hold it.
- 🚪 Ohariu Disappears: Ohariu vanishes, leaving Labour's Greg O'Connor without a seat.
- 🌍 Christchurch Central's Marginal Status: Christchurch Central becomes a marginal seat for Labour after losing some territory.
- 🟢 Rongotai's Green Gains: The Green Party’s Genter should see an increase in their majority in Rongotai after boundary changes.
- 📉 National's Need for Stronger Vote: Even though National gains ground, they need a strong party vote (over 35%) to ensure list MPs in the next Parliament.
- ⚖️ Overall Impact: The changes lead to a National rise from 43 to 45 seats, with Labour's drop from 18 to 15 seats. The overall situation is unfavorable for Labour but leaves National with risks too.
