This is edition 2025/147 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. How unproportional might the next Parliament be?
David Farrar
- ⚖️ MMP is designed to deliver proportional representation in Parliament, but overhang seats can distort results.
- 🪑 Overhangs occur when a party wins more electorates than its share of the party vote entitles it to.
- 📜 History of overhangs: 2023 (TPM +2), 2014 (United Future +1), 2011 (Māori Party +1), 2008 (Māori Party +2), 2005 (Māori Party +1).
- 🔢 Normally 120 MPs = 61 needed to govern, but overhangs raise the threshold (e.g., 62 seats needed in a 122-seat Parliament).
- 🧮 A 3-seat overhang could let a bloc with fewer votes form government, reversing the intended proportional outcome.
- 📊 Scenario 1 (2026): TPM wins all 7 Māori seats with <3.5% party vote → Left bloc forms government despite fewer votes.
- 🏛️ Scenario 2 (2026): National wins 44 electorates with <33% party vote → Right bloc forms government despite fewer votes.
- 📰 Author believes media would accept Scenario 1 as fine, but call Scenario 2 a crisis or “stolen election.”
- 🔧 Two proposed fixes: (1) Strip excess electorate wins beyond party vote entitlement, giving them to runner-ups. (2) Expand Parliament size to maintain proportionality.
- ✅ Author prefers option (1), as it avoids bloating Parliament.
