This is edition 2025/158 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. The Coalition Government is aware of the electorate’s needs – why won’t it meet them?
Chris Trotter
- 📜 Shakespearean Tide Metaphor – The essay begins with Julius Caesar’s famous line, emphasizing that political success often depends on timing and seizing the right moment.
- 🛳️ Christopher Luxon’s Leadership Style – Luxon is portrayed as a cautious “boardroom tactician,” not a bold risk-taker; his rise has been aided by others’ political failures rather than his own daring moves.
- 🌊 Luxon as “Prince of Tides” – Rather than commanding the political waves, Luxon benefits from broader forces, positioning him as a beneficiary of timing rather than a master strategist.
- 📉 Months of Political Drift – Critics accuse Luxon of lacking direction, but economic indicators suggest his government may still ride favourable tides into electoral safety.
- 🏠 Economic Recovery by 2026 – Predictions point to falling mortgage rates, rising house prices, and modest growth — enough to satisfy voters’ modest expectations and secure the coalition’s survival.
- 🔴 Labour’s Dilemma – Chris Hipkins’ “Not-National” strategy depends on economic pain continuing. Without worsening cost-of-living pressures, Labour risks losing voter anger and momentum.
- 🧈 Labour Needs Bad News – Labour benefits electorally if essentials like butter, lamb, power bills, and rates remain painfully expensive, fuelling resentment against the government.
- 😡 Electorate’s Mood Matters – Labour’s best chance is an enraged electorate focused on “throwing the bums out,” overlooking Labour’s own lack of bold policy alternatives.
- ⏳ Timing Problem for Labour – With over a year until the 2026 election, Labour risks peaking too early; improving economic conditions could undermine its “crisis narrative.”
- 🏦 Reserve Bank’s Role – The RBNZ is likely to ease interest rates, potentially boosting growth and helping the government — effectively acting as Luxon’s “secret electoral ally.”
- ⚖️ Labour’s Strategic Stagnation – Labour avoids bold reforms, sitting awkwardly between Green-style progressivism and centrist economic orthodoxy, leaving voters guessing its real vision.
- ➗ “Politics of Subtraction” – Hipkins aims to scrape off just enough votes from National to win, then appease Greens and Te Pāti Māori with minimal concessions — a fragile and uninspiring strategy.
- 🌐 Global Winds, Not Luxon’s Genius – If New Zealand recovers, Luxon’s success will owe more to global economic tides and Reserve Bank policy than personal political mastery.
- 🍀 Luxon’s Luck Factor – The essay concludes that Luxon is no Julius Caesar but benefits from remarkably good timing and even better luck.
