This is edition 2025/179 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. Will Hipkins rule out Te Pāti Māori?
David Farrar
- 🗳️ Labour’s dilemma: Chris Hipkins can’t form a government without Te Pāti Māori (TPM) support, but openly relying on them risks losing voter support.
- 📊 Polling reality: All 72 recent polls show Labour and Greens can’t win alone; TPM support is essential.
- 😕 Public perception of TPM: Only 16% of New Zealanders view TPM favourably; 58% unfavourably, with 42% deeply unfavourable. Older voters and even some Labour and Green supporters hold negative views.
- 🔢 Net favourability by party: TPM is highly favoured by their own supporters (+88%), but unfavourable among Labour (-19%), Greens (-6%), undecided (-52%), and strongly opposed by National, ACT, and NZ First voters.
- ⚡ TPM instability: Internal divisions and perceived civil war within TPM reinforce public doubts about their ability to govern.
- 🎭 Hipkins’ likely strategy: Predicted to do a “Claytons ruling out”—pretending to distance himself from TPM in Cabinet/Ministry while still depending on their votes to govern.
- 💥 Consequences of Claytons ruling out: TPM, excluded from formal roles but needed for governance, could demand concessions aggressively, making government less stable than a genuine coalition.
- 🔮 Overall prediction: Hipkins won’t fully rule TPM out; he’ll aim to appear independent while relying on them behind the scenes.
