This is edition 2025/192 of the Ten@10 newsletter.
Hi all,
This is the Ten@10, where I collate and summarise ten news items you generally won't see in the mainstream media.
Enjoy!
1. Why the right is stable and the left is splintering
Dave Armstrong
- 🎭 Author’s Background – Dave Armstrong, a Wellington-based playwright and satirist, provides a political opinion analysis of New Zealand’s shifting alliances.
- 🗳️ 2023 Election Outcome – A right-wing coalition became inevitable; National, ACT, and NZ First formed government despite Luxon’s reluctance to rely on Winston Peters.
- 🤝 Unexpected Stability – Despite predictions of a “coalition of chaos,” the trio has remained stable for two years, driven by politicians’ awareness that voters punish disunity.
- 🧭 Leadership Dynamics – National’s weak leadership has hurt its polling, yet ACT and NZ First have avoided conflict to protect their political gains.
- 📊 Polling Fortunes – NZ First has doubled its 2023 result; ACT has dipped to 6%, though media scrutiny is far harsher on the Greens at similar levels.
- 🌪️ Left-Wing Turmoil – The Greens and Te Pāti Māori (TPM) face internal dysfunction, contrasting with Labour’s steady, controversy-free performance under Chris Hipkins.
- 😢 Loss and Grief – The deaths of Efeso Collins and Takutai Tarsh Kemp have intensified tensions within smaller parties.
- 🧩 Green Party Attrition – The Greens lost three MPs (Ghahraman, Tana, Doyle) but maintain leadership stability and polling strength.
- ⚡ TPM Scandals – Mariameno Kapa-Kingi’s demotion and office-spending issues mirror ACT’s 2011 internal chaos, yet TPM’s political obituary may be premature.
- 🗳️ Recent Success – TPM’s Oriini Kaipara’s decisive by-election win in Tāmaki Makaurau shows enduring grassroots strength despite controversies.
- 🔮 Labour’s Dilemma – Hipkins hopes coalition troubles will let Labour and the Greens govern alone, but polling suggests they’ll still need TPM’s support.
- 💚 Greens-TPM Relationship – The two parties remain ideologically aligned; their closeness could reshape the left-wing bloc.
- 🚨 Right-Wing Strategy – Peters and Seymour are expected to weaponize anti-Māori sentiment if Labour signals a partnership with TPM.
- 🔁 Winston’s Wildcard – Peters might yet pivot back to Labour if National-ACT relations sour—echoing past coalition flexibility seen in 2002, 2005, and 2017.
- 🕰️ Final Note – In politics, alliances shift rapidly: “A week is a long time in politics. A year is an eternity.” Stay tuned.
